{"id":62378,"date":"2026-02-24T03:00:23","date_gmt":"2026-02-24T02:00:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/housesmarketplace.com\/spreads-play-the-superhero-as-mortgage-rates-move-below-6-again\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T03:00:23","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T02:00:23","slug":"spreads-play-the-superhero-as-mortgage-rates-move-below-6-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/housesmarketplace.com\/ru\/spreads-play-the-superhero-as-mortgage-rates-move-below-6-again\/","title":{"rendered":"Spreads play the superhero as mortgage rates move below 6% again"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

After a weekend of crazy headlines and a stock sell-off on Monday morning, bond yields are close to hitting 4% again, but mortgage rates are back under 6% once again, which is the multiyear low in recent history. <\/p>\n

The biggest reason rates are under 6% isn\u2019t just that the 2025 labor market produced the lowest job-growth year<\/a> in the 21st century outside of recession. It\u2019s because mortgage spreads are close to normal again.<\/p>\n

Mortgage News Daily just quoted a national average of 5.99%. With many rate cuts in the system<\/a> and two more likely to happen in 2026, it\u2019s not shocking that mortgage rates are here, even with the recent inflation print<\/a> remaining above the \u0424\u0435\u0434\u0435\u0440\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0440\u0435\u0437\u0435\u0440\u0432<\/strong>\u2019s target. Always remember the rule: it\u2019s really labor over inflation<\/a>. And with headlines that AI will displace<\/a> a lot of work, money has gone to the bond market, sending rates lower today.<\/p>\n

Mortgage spreads serve as the hero<\/h2>\n

In 2024, when the 10-year yield fell to 3.62%, mortgage rates never fell below 6% because mortgage spreads remained elevated. <\/p>\n

This year, however, mortgage spreads are close to their normal range of 1.6% to 1.8%, which is a big reason the 10-year yield can still be above 4%. Mortgage spreads, according to our previous \u0416\u0438\u043b\u044c\u0435\u041f\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043e\u043b\u043e\u043a\u0430<\/strong> tracker report<\/a>, were at 1.94% this week. Back in 2023, the figure got as high as 3.11%, which means mortgage rates would still be above 7% today if we were dealing with the worst levels of mortgage spreads.<\/p>\n

Currently, with today\u2019s stock sell-off, the 10-year yield is at 4.03%. As you can see in the chart below, that figure was lower in 2024. But mortgage spreads were higher then, hence why we didn\u2019t have rates below 6% then. If the 10-year yield fell toward 3.62% today, mortgage rates would easily drop below 5.75% this year.<\/p>\n

\u0417\u0430\u043a\u043b\u044e\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435<\/h2>\n

\u0414\u043b\u044f \u043c\u043e\u0435\u0433\u043e 2026 forecast<\/a>, the lowest mortgage rate I had was 5.75%, along with a 10-year yield of 3.80%. Of course, if the labor market breaks, the Fed sounds dovish \u2014 or we get a very low level of normal spreads at 1.6% \u2014 we would be below 5.75% today. <\/p>\n

\u0412 today\u2019s podcast<\/a>, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler and I discussed what it would take to get below 5.75%, even with presumptive new Fed Chair \u041a\u0435\u0432\u0438\u043d \u0423\u043e\u0440\u0448<\/a>, who will be a more dovish leader than Jerome Powell for the housing market as long as Trump is president.<\/p>\n

All in all, it\u2019s much better that mortgage rates are below 6% heading into spring than above 7%. With higher inventory, cooling price growth, and the addition of lower rates with less volatility, it\u2019s a much healthier housing market than the past few years.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After a weekend of crazy headlines and a stock sell-off on Monday morning, bond yields are close to hitting 4% again, but mortgage rates are back under 6% once again, which is the multiyear low in recent history. 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