{"id":62799,"date":"2026-04-15T03:05:07","date_gmt":"2026-04-15T01:05:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/housesmarketplace.com\/mba-chief-economist-says-mortgage-rates-inflation-will-stay-elevated-through-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T03:05:07","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T01:05:07","slug":"mba-chief-economist-says-mortgage-rates-inflation-will-stay-elevated-through-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/housesmarketplace.com\/ru\/mba-chief-economist-says-mortgage-rates-inflation-will-stay-elevated-through-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"MBA chief economist says mortgage rates, inflation will stay elevated through 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Mortgage rates and inflation are expected to remain elevated through 2026 as pressures tied to geopolitical tensions<\/a> keep \u0424\u0435\u0434\u0435\u0440\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0440\u0435\u0437\u0435\u0440\u0432<\/strong> rate cuts on hold. That\u2019s according to \u041c\u0430\u0439\u043a \u0424\u0440\u0430\u0442\u0430\u043d\u0442\u043e\u043d\u0438<\/a>, chief economist and senior vice president of research and business development at the \u0410\u0441\u0441\u043e\u0446\u0438\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044f \u0438\u043f\u043e\u0442\u0435\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0431\u0430\u043d\u043a\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432<\/strong> (MBA).<\/p>\n

Speaking during an economic outlook session at the MBA\u2019s National Advocacy Conference on Tuesday, Fratantoni said the U.S. economy is marked by \u201cuncertainty along so many dimensions,\u201d with a murky job market<\/a> \u0438 renewed inflation risks<\/a> shaping the outlook for interest rates and housing.<\/p>\n

The labor market, he said, is \u201cneither terribly strong nor terribly weak.\u201d Monthly job growth averaged about 15,000 in 2025 and has risen to roughly 70,000 so far in 2026, although the data remains volatile and subject to revision. The unemployment rate is hovering around 4.3% as of March, with signs of softening.<\/p>\n

At the same time, rising oil prices linked to global conflict are pushing inflation higher than previously expected. As a result, Fratantoni said that contrary to MBA\u2019s original forecast<\/a> of 3.2% inflation, he sees a figure closer to 4% by the end of 2026.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s an inflation event for the United States,\u201d Fratantoni said about the war in Iran<\/a>, adding that rates could move higher if geopolitical risks intensify.<\/p>\n

The \u041c\u0412\u0410<\/a> also removed expectations for any \u0424\u0435\u0434\u0435\u0440\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0440\u0435\u0437\u0435\u0440\u0432<\/a> rate cuts this year. The federal funds rate is expected to remain in its current range of roughly 3.5% to 3.75%, with little movement anticipated into 2027. Longer-term rates are also expected to hold steady.<\/p>\n

On housing supply, Fratantoni pointed to declining effective rents in many markets, especially across the \u0421\u043e\u043b\u043d\u0435\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u043f\u043e\u044f\u0441<\/a>. Slowing population growth, lower fertility rates and tighter \u0438\u043c\u043c\u0438\u0433\u0440\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044f<\/a> are all curbing demand just as supply has increased, he said.<\/p>\n

Affordability, however, remains strained. Wage growth is gradually improving affordability, but recent borrowers are more vulnerable and the market is risky, Fratantoni said.<\/p>\n

Almost 17% of 2024 vintage \u0424\u0435\u0434\u0435\u0440\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u0436\u0438\u043b\u0438\u0449\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u0443\u043f\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435<\/strong> (FHA) loans and more than 25% of \u0414\u0435\u043f\u0430\u0440\u0442\u0430\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442 \u0421\u0428\u0410 \u043f\u043e \u0434\u0435\u043b\u0430\u043c \u0432\u0435\u0442\u0435\u0440\u0430\u043d\u043e\u0432<\/strong> (VA) loans are now \u043f\u043e\u0434 \u0432\u043e\u0434\u043e\u0439<\/a>, Fratantoni added, compared with very strong equity positions for borrowers who bought in earlier years.<\/p>\n

Delinquencies<\/a> tell a similar split story. Conventional loan delinquencies are \u201cabout as low as they\u2019ve ever been,\u201d he said, while FHA delinquencies have climbed to about 11.5%, driven by changes to loss mitigation<\/a> and genuine credit deterioration.<\/p>\n

When asked at the end of his session whether the war, inflation or debt would have a bigger impact on mortgage rates, Fratantoni answered that the war would have a great impact over the next six months. <\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s all about oil prices,\u201d he said. \u201cAs for inflation, what we showed over the past five years is that this economy is so much more susceptible to inflation than anybody would have guessed. \u2026 Think back to the \u0411\u0430\u043d\u043a \u041a\u0440\u0435\u043c\u043d\u0438\u0435\u0432\u043e\u0439 \u0434\u043e\u043b\u0438\u043d\u044b<\/a> <\/strong>experience in 2023. People have re-remembered that inflation can jump quickly, and again, that immediately shows up in longer-term yields.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mortgage rates and inflation are expected to remain elevated through 2026 as pressures tied to geopolitical tensions keep Federal Reserve rate cuts on hold. That\u2019s according to Mike Fratantoni, chief economist and senior vice president of research and business development at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Speaking during an economic outlook session at the MBA\u2019s […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-62799","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nMBA chief economist says mortgage rates, inflation will stay elevated through 2026 - Houses Marketplace<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/housesmarketplace.com\/ru\/mba-chief-economist-says-mortgage-rates-inflation-will-stay-elevated-through-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ru_RU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"MBA chief economist says mortgage rates, inflation will stay elevated through 2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Mortgage rates and inflation are expected to remain elevated through 2026 as pressures tied to geopolitical tensions keep Federal Reserve rate cuts on hold. 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