{"id":63432,"date":"2026-06-28T03:00:17","date_gmt":"2026-06-28T01:00:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/housesmarketplace.com\/how-the-housing-market-survived-the-iran-conflict\/"},"modified":"2026-06-28T03:00:17","modified_gmt":"2026-06-28T01:00:17","slug":"how-the-housing-market-survived-the-iran-conflict","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/housesmarketplace.com\/ru\/how-the-housing-market-survived-the-iran-conflict\/","title":{"rendered":"How the housing market survived the Iran conflict"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Now that the Iran conflict is behind us and oil prices have fallen significantly, we can hopefully move into the second half of 2026 with less drama for housing. It would be great if the economic backdrop was less like an episode of <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/24_(TV_series)\">24<\/a> and more like <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imdb.com\/title\/tt0096694\">Saved by the Bell<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>How did housing hold up with oil prices above $100 at one point, and some people talking about three Fed rate hikes in 2026? Let\u2019s take a look at the data and wrap up the first half of 2026. Note that, as always, there is some impact on our weekly data from any three-day holiday. Juneteenth was two Fridays ago and some people take that three-day holiday to go on vacation. And of course, the July 4th holiday is right around the corner.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-total-pending-home-sales\">\u0412\u0441\u0435\u0433\u043e \u043e\u0436\u0438\u0434\u0430\u0435\u043c\u044b\u0445 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u0430\u0436 \u0434\u043e\u043c\u043e\u0432<\/h2>\n<p>Our total pending home sales data is different than our weekly total pending sales data as it\u2019s more of an average duration of sales rather than something weekly. As you can see below, housing demand not only survived the first half of 2026 but has done better than last year, mostly due to the fact that mortgage spreads have improved so much over the years. 2026 mortgage rates had the lowest start to the year since 2022. Also, affordability has gotten slightly better over the past two years and wage growth has outpaced home-price growth.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Here are the total pending sales for last week over the last two years:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>2026: 429,242<\/li>\n<li>2025: 396,741<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/29516731\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\"><\/noscript><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-mortgage-purchase-application-data\">\u0414\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0437\u0430\u044f\u0432\u043a\u0438 \u043d\u0430 \u043f\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043f\u043a\u0443 \u0438\u043f\u043e\u0442\u0435\u043a\u0438<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/tag\/purchase-applications\/\">Purchase application<\/a> data is a forward-looking indicator: growth here leads home sales by roughly 30-90 days. Since late 2022, anytime we have seen at least 12-14 weeks of week-to-week growth, we tend to get a couple of hundred thousand more home sales. This year, the week-to-week data has been mostly flat, but the year-over-year growth data has been positive outside of two weeks, which had hard comps on a year-over-year basis.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>This year\u2019s growth is a bit more legit than last year\u2019s, which was working from an extremely low base, so the percentage growth needs context. The Iran conflict didn\u2019t damage this data line too much on the negative side; a better premise is that the growth rate was probably slowed just a tad.<\/p>\n<p><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/29485064\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\"><\/noscript><\/p>\n<p>Here are the stats on purchase apps so far in 2026:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>10 \u043f\u043e\u0437\u0438\u0442\u0438\u0432\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0435\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043e\u0442\u043f\u0435\u0447\u0430\u0442\u043a\u043e\u0432<\/li>\n<li>12 negative week-to-week prints<\/li>\n<li>2 flat week-to-week prints<\/li>\n<li>10 weeks of double-digit year-over-year growth<\/li>\n<li>22 weeks of positive year-over-year growth<\/li>\n<li>2 negative year-over-year prints<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-weekly-pending-sales\">\u0415\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043e\u0436\u0438\u0434\u0430\u0435\u043c\u044b\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u0430\u0436\u0438<\/h2>\n<p>\u041d\u0430\u0448 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/pending-homes-sales\/\">\u043e\u0436\u0438\u0434\u0430\u0435\u043c\u044b\u0435 \u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043f\u043e \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u0430\u0436\u0430\u043c \u0436\u0438\u043b\u044c\u044f <\/a>provides a week-to-week perspective, though results can be affected by holidays and short-term fluctuations. Our weekly pending sales data typically takes 30-60 days to be reflected in the sales data.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>While last week did have a slight year-over-year decline \u2014 off a harder comp \u2014 the biggest variables slowing this data line since mid-June 2025 were the winter holidays and the epic <a href=\"https:\/\/weather.com\/storms\/winter\/news\/2026-01-25-winter-storm-fern-south-northeast-snow-ice-storm-forecast\">snowmageddon<\/a> storm in January. Mortgage rates haven\u2019t risen above 7% this year, thanks to spreads, and the housing data has held firm. Of course, the growth rate of sales would have been better if rates stayed under 6.25% for the entire year, but considering everything that has gone on, not bad.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Here are the pending sales for last week over the last two years:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>2026: 72,222<\/li>\n<li>2025: 74,130<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/29516738\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\"><\/noscript><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-10-year-yield-and-mortgage-rates\">\u0414\u043e\u0445\u043e\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c \u043f\u043e 10-\u043b\u0435\u0442\u043d\u0438\u043c \u043e\u0431\u043b\u0438\u0433\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044f\u043c \u0438 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u043a\u0438 \u043f\u043e \u0438\u043f\u043e\u0442\u0435\u0447\u043d\u044b\u043c \u043a\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0438\u0442\u0430\u043c<\/h2>\n<p>\u0432 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/articles\/housingwire-2026-housing-forecast\/\">\u041f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437 HousingWire \u043d\u0430 2026 \u0433\u043e\u0434<\/a>\u042f \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u043f\u043e\u043b\u0430\u0433\u0430\u043b \u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u0443\u044e\u0449\u0438\u0435 \u0434\u0438\u0430\u043f\u0430\u0437\u043e\u043d\u044b:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u0421\u0442\u0430\u0432\u043a\u0438 \u043f\u043e \u0438\u043f\u043e\u0442\u0435\u043a\u0435 \u0432 \u0434\u0438\u0430\u043f\u0430\u0437\u043e\u043d\u0435 \u043e\u0442 5,75% \u0434\u043e 6,75%<\/li>\n<li>\u0414\u043e\u0445\u043e\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c 10-\u043b\u0435\u0442\u043d\u0438\u0445 \u043e\u0431\u043b\u0438\u0433\u0430\u0446\u0438\u0439 \u043a\u043e\u043b\u0435\u0431\u043b\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0432 \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0445 \u043e\u0442 3,801 \u0442\u044b\u0441. \u0434\u043e\u043b\u043b. \u0421\u0428\u0410\/3 \u0442\u044b\u0441. \u0434\u043e\u043b\u043b. \u0421\u0428\u0410 \u0434\u043e 4,601 \u0442\u044b\u0441. \u0434\u043e\u043b\u043b. \u0421\u0428\u0410\/3 ...<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The biggest question I have heard from our audience is: Now that the oil markets believe the conflict is ending and oil prices are back down to more normal levels, why haven\u2019t mortgage rates gone below 6.50%? Last week, I explained what is happening in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/articles\/why-mortgage-rates-havent-followed-oil-prices-by-moving-lower\/\">\u042d\u0442\u0430 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0442\u044c\u044f<\/a> with charts and in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/podcast\/why-arent-mortgage-rates-dropping-along-with-oil-prices\/\">\u044d\u0442\u043e\u0442 \u044d\u043f\u0438\u0437\u043e\u0434 <\/a>\u043f\u043e\u0434\u043a\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0430 HousingWire Daily.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Monday\u2019s podcast will cover the Fed and what can drive rates lower or higher from here. However, considering what happened with oil prices over $100 and PCE inflation over 4% this year, the 10-year yield at\u00a04.37% is a blessing.<\/p>\n<p><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/29516695\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\"><\/noscript><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-mortgage-spreads\">\u0418\u043f\u043e\u0442\u0435\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0441\u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u044b<\/h2>\n<p>This week\u2019s mortgage spread discussion is going to be very simple: without mortgage spreads getting closer to their normal recent range of 1.60%-1.80% this year, I wouldn\u2019t be writing this article today. If we had the worst spreads of 2023 woth the 10-year yield at its current level, mortgage rates would be closer to 8%. Even with the spreads of 2024-2025, mortgage rates would have been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/articles\/mortgage-spreads-are-the-only-thing-keeping-rates-under-7\/\">above 7%<\/a> most of the year.\u00a0Mortgage spreads were the best defense against the Iran conflict, higher oil and higher inflation data.<\/p>\n<p><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/29516698\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\"><\/noscript><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-housing-inventory\">\u0418\u043d\u0432\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0430\u0440\u0438\u0437\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044f \u0436\u0438\u043b\u044c\u044f<\/h2>\n<p>Housing inventory has been the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/articles\/housing-demand-inventory-2026pending-sales-rose-to-75856-vs-72039-in-2025-as-inventory-turned-negative-year-over-year-with-mortgage-rates-near-6-58\/\">surprising story<\/a> of housing for 2026, unless you were reading our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/housing-market-tracker\/\">\u0422\u0440\u0435\u043a\u0435\u0440 \u0440\u044b\u043d\u043a\u0430 \u0436\u0438\u043b\u044c\u044f<\/a> since mid-June 2025, when the housing market shifted and the year-over-year growth from the first half of 2025 couldn\u2019t be sustained. For the past 12 months I\u2019ve been explaining that inventory growth will slow. We shouldn\u2019t be shocked by some negative year-over-year prints heading into mid-June as the comps were going to be difficult to show growth. Now that we are past mid-June, those low comps are over, and now it\u2019s going to be a good fight between buyers and sellers.\u00a0<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Weekly inventory change: (June 19-June 26): Inventory rose from<strong> 830,939 <\/strong>\u043a<strong> 841,547<\/strong> <strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Same week last year: (June 20-June 27): Inventory rose from <strong>828,890 <\/strong>\u043a<strong> 831,050<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/29516705\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\"><\/noscript><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-new-listings\">\u041d\u043e\u0432\u044b\u0435 \u043e\u0431\u044a\u044f\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f<\/h2>\n<p>Seasonality in the new listings data is here; we are starting the traditional decline. Traditionally, we would see 80,000-100,000 new listings during the seasonal peak weeks, but we\u2019ve only cracked above 80,000 four times this year and never in back-to-back weeks. However, the conflict hasn\u2019t changed the new listings data from its normal trend this year, which is another victory for housing. And remember that last weekend was three-day holiday.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Some context for those who believe that the new listings data resembles the housing bubble years: new listings during that time ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for several years. Several years!<\/p>\n<p>\u0412\u043e\u0442 \u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043e \u043d\u043e\u0432\u044b\u0445 \u043e\u0431\u044a\u044f\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f\u0445 \u0437\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0448\u043b\u0443\u044e \u043d\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043b\u044e \u0437\u0430 \u043f\u043e\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0434\u0432\u0430 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>2026: 75,128<\/li>\n<li>2025: 81,059<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/29516712\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\"><\/noscript><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-price-cut-percentage\">\u041f\u0440\u043e\u0446\u0435\u043d\u0442 \u0441\u043d\u0438\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0446\u0435\u043d\u044b<\/h2>\n<p>Typically, about one-third of homes undergo price reductions before they sell, reflecting the dynamic nature of the housing market. For the most part, price-cut percentages this year have been lower than last year.<\/p>\n<p>In my 2026 home-price <a href=\"https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/articles\/housingwire-2026-housing-forecast\/\">\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437<\/a>, I had a negative 0.62% call for the year nationally. Home-price growth really isn\u2019t going anywhere this year, but the percentage of price cuts has been lower year over year for most of 2026. If we see rates fall, demand picking up and inventory going negative year over year, my forecast will have a hard time being correct. However, for 2026 this has been good news for housing as wage growth outpaced home prices once again.<\/p>\n<p>\u041f\u0440\u043e\u0446\u0435\u043d\u0442 \u0441\u043d\u0438\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0446\u0435\u043d \u0437\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0448\u0435\u0434\u0448\u0443\u044e \u043d\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043b\u044e:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>2026: 39.05%<\/li>\n<li>2025: 40%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/29516720\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\"><\/noscript><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead-jobs-week-iran-and-home-prices\">The week ahead: Jobs week, Iran and home prices <\/h2>\n<p>We\u2019ve had the usual <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/other\/sea-route-near-oman-is-expanding-to-facilitate-more-traffic-through-strait-of-hormuz-us-navy-says\/ar-AA26FgJP?ocid=BingNewsVerp\">weekend war games<\/a> with Iran but the markets have gotten more accustomed to these events. We\u2019ll see if it means anything for oil prices and rates on Sunday night.\u00a0 <\/p>\n<p>However, more importantly, it\u2019s jobs week and the data will show if the Fed gets what it wants in the labor data: strong job growth with breadth. I believe that anything over 33,000 jobs, being diversified, will be  fine with the Fed. This will most likely be our last jobs report that will reflect hiring for the World Cup \u2014 we will see a hit to the jobs report once that fades out. <\/p>\n<p>This week we will also get the <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/csushpinsa\">S&amp;P Cotality Case-Shiller home price index<\/a>, which will show more of the same: there\u2019s not too much happening with home prices this year. Hopefully, we can move on from this conflict and get back to the economic data mattering more than missiles and drones.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Now that the Iran conflict is behind us and oil prices have fallen significantly, we can hopefully move into the second half of 2026 with less drama for housing. It would be great if the economic backdrop was less like an episode of 24 and more like Saved by the Bell. How did housing hold [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-63432","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v17.5 (Yoast SEO v18.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>How the housing market survived the Iran conflict - Houses Marketplace<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/housesmarketplace.com\/ru\/how-the-housing-market-survived-the-iran-conflict\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ru_RU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How the housing market survived the Iran conflict\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Now that the Iran conflict is behind us and oil prices have fallen significantly, we can hopefully move into the second half of 2026 with less drama for housing. It would be great if the economic backdrop was less like an episode of 24 and more like Saved by the Bell. 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