{"id":63646,"date":"2026-07-26T03:00:20","date_gmt":"2026-07-26T01:00:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/housesmarketplace.com\/home-sales-are-positive-but-higher-rates-slowing-demand\/"},"modified":"2026-07-26T03:00:20","modified_gmt":"2026-07-26T01:00:20","slug":"home-sales-are-positive-but-higher-rates-slowing-demand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/housesmarketplace.com\/ru\/home-sales-are-positive-but-higher-rates-slowing-demand\/","title":{"rendered":"Home sales are positive but higher rates slowing demand"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Mortgage rates hit a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/articles\/mortgage-rates-hit-yearly-highs-as-iran-conflict-escalates\/\">yearly high<\/a> last week and even though housing demand is still positive year over year, it is slowing down, just not in a big way yet. Typically, in the past few years, when <a href=\"https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/mortgage-rates\/\">\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u043a\u0438 \u043f\u043e \u0438\u043f\u043e\u0442\u0435\u0447\u043d\u044b\u043c \u043a\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0438\u0442\u0430\u043c<\/a> get above 6.64% and then break over 7%, housing demand slows. Housing data always improves when rates move lower than 6.64% and just stay near 6%. We have seen this back-and-forth dance with sales data since the start of 2023 and typically sales don\u2019t go anywhere, but since most of the year has been below 6.64%, housing demand has held firm.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Mortgage rates still haven\u2019t breached 7% this year, but if rates go higher for longer, the data will fade, so let\u2019s take a look at this weekend\u2019s tracker.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-weekly-pending-sales\">\u0415\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043e\u0436\u0438\u0434\u0430\u0435\u043c\u044b\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u0430\u0436\u0438<\/h2>\n<p>\u041d\u0430\u0448 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/pending-homes-sales\/\">\u043e\u0436\u0438\u0434\u0430\u0435\u043c\u044b\u0435 \u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043f\u043e \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u0430\u0436\u0430\u043c \u0436\u0438\u043b\u044c\u044f <\/a>provides a week-to-week perspective, though results can be affected by holidays and short-term fluctuations. This weekly pending sales data typically takes 30-60 days to be reflected in the sales data.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Two weeks ago, we saw a smidge of a decline year over year, and last week we saw a smidge of an increase year over year, but make no mistake, housing is slowing. For now, the growth rate has really cooled off.<\/p>\n<p>Here are the pending sales for last week over the last two years:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>2026: 70,748<\/li>\n<li>2025: 70, 609<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/29792133\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\"><\/noscript><\/p>\n<p>Our total pending home sales data, which is more of an average of sales rather than pure weekly data, is showing the same thing: we still have growth, but growth is slowing down.\u00a0<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>2026: 396,759<\/li>\n<li>2025: 384,307<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/29792121\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\"><\/noscript><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-mortgage-purchase-application-data\">\u0414\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0437\u0430\u044f\u0432\u043a\u0438 \u043d\u0430 \u043f\u043e\u043a\u0443\u043f\u043a\u0443 \u0438\u043f\u043e\u0442\u0435\u043a\u0438<\/h2>\n<p>Purchase application data typically sees a week-to-week increase during this calendar week every year. Two weeks ago, we had a 7% decline, and that\u2019s the traditional decline we see due to the July 4th holiday and this week is the seasonal increase that happens after the holiday dive. So the positive 6% week-to-week wasn\u2019t a surprise. The year-over-year growth was only 0.2%, so again, the market is slowing down. <\/p>\n<p>The comps year over year will be more challenging as we enter a time when rates were lower last year than this year.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Here are the stats on purchase apps so far in 2026:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>12 positive week-to-week prints<\/li>\n<li>14 negative week-to-week prints<\/li>\n<li>2 flat week-to-week prints<\/li>\n<li>10 weeks of double-digit year-over-year growth<\/li>\n<li>24 weeks of positive year-over-year growth<\/li>\n<li>3 negative year-over-year prints<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/29762303\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\"><\/noscript><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-10-year-yield-and-mortgage-rates\">\u0414\u043e\u0445\u043e\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c \u043f\u043e 10-\u043b\u0435\u0442\u043d\u0438\u043c \u043e\u0431\u043b\u0438\u0433\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044f\u043c \u0438 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u043a\u0438 \u043f\u043e \u0438\u043f\u043e\u0442\u0435\u0447\u043d\u044b\u043c \u043a\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0438\u0442\u0430\u043c<\/h2>\n<p>\u0432 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/articles\/housingwire-2026-housing-forecast\/\">\u041f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437 HousingWire \u043d\u0430 2026 \u0433\u043e\u0434<\/a>\u042f \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u043f\u043e\u043b\u0430\u0433\u0430\u043b \u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u0443\u044e\u0449\u0438\u0435 \u0434\u0438\u0430\u043f\u0430\u0437\u043e\u043d\u044b:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u0421\u0442\u0430\u0432\u043a\u0438 \u043f\u043e \u0438\u043f\u043e\u0442\u0435\u043a\u0435 \u0432 \u0434\u0438\u0430\u043f\u0430\u0437\u043e\u043d\u0435 \u043e\u0442 5,75% \u0434\u043e 6,75%<\/li>\n<li>\u0414\u043e\u0445\u043e\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c 10-\u043b\u0435\u0442\u043d\u0438\u0445 \u043e\u0431\u043b\u0438\u0433\u0430\u0446\u0438\u0439 \u043a\u043e\u043b\u0435\u0431\u043b\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0432 \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0430\u0445 \u043e\u0442 3,801 \u0442\u044b\u0441. \u0434\u043e\u043b\u043b. \u0421\u0428\u0410\/3 \u0442\u044b\u0441. \u0434\u043e\u043b\u043b. \u0421\u0428\u0410 \u0434\u043e 4,601 \u0442\u044b\u0441. \u0434\u043e\u043b\u043b. \u0421\u0428\u0410\/3 ...<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Clearly, the upper range of the 2026 forecast for the 10-year and mortgage rates has been broken. The bond market does not like the Iran conflict and both times that yields spiked higher than 4.60% was when the conflict <a href=\"https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/articles\/how-high-can-mortgage-rates-go-with-iran-conflict-2-0\/\">escalated<\/a>. I recently discussed how high mortgage rates can go with Conflict 2.0 with Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=SfuHM-d9fRw\">\u044d\u0442\u043e\u0442 \u044d\u043f\u0438\u0437\u043e\u0434<\/a> of the HousingWire podcast. So for now, it\u2019s all about Iran conflict 2.0 \u2014 and the Fed is meeting this week.<\/p>\n<p><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/29792081\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\"><\/noscript><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-mortgage-spreads\">\u0418\u043f\u043e\u0442\u0435\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0441\u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u044b<\/h2>\n<p>One thing is for sure this year: our entire housing discussion would have been different if <a href=\"https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/podcast\/mortgage-spreads-keeping-rates-under-7\/\">\u0438\u043f\u043e\u0442\u0435\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0441\u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u044b <\/a>didn\u2019t improve this year. 2023 spreads would have us at 7.98% today.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The main reason I believe housing demand has stayed firm in 2026 is that mortgage spreads alone have kept mortgage rates below 6.64% most of the year. Without the improvement in mortgage spreads, housing demand wouldn\u2019t have seen the growth it had earlier in the year with our weekly sales data.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/29792036\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\"><\/noscript><\/p>\n<p>Historically, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%. Last week, spreads were at 1.94%, down from 1.97% the week before.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s compare last week\u2019s mortgage rates to where they would have been over the last three years, given the 10-year yield\u2019s current level:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>If we had the worst mortgage spread levels of 2023, mortgage rates would be <strong>7.98%<\/strong> today, not<strong> 6.81%.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>If we had the worst levels of 2024, mortgage rates would be <strong>7.60%<\/strong> \u0441\u0435\u0433\u043e\u0434\u043d\u044f.\u00a0<\/li>\n<li>If we had the worst levels of 2025, mortgage rates would be <strong>7.41%<\/strong> \u0441\u0435\u0433\u043e\u0434\u043d\u044f.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-housing-inventory\">\u0418\u043d\u0432\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0430\u0440\u0438\u0437\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044f \u0436\u0438\u043b\u044c\u044f<\/h2>\n<p>Housing inventory has slowed a lot since mid-June 2025; most of the weeks in the past two months have been negative year over year, only slightly though. However, as rates have risen, inventory growth has picked up a bit, showing slight year-over-year growth. Also, remember, the year-over-year comps will be easier to show growth from now on as well.\u00a0<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Weekly inventory change:(July 17-July 24): Inventory rose from<strong>\u00a0859,359<\/strong> \u043a<strong> 865,233<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Same week last year: (July 18-July 25): Inventory rose from <strong>856,731 <\/strong>\u043a<strong> 860,407<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/29792085\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\"><\/noscript><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-new-listings\">\u041d\u043e\u0432\u044b\u0435 \u043e\u0431\u044a\u044f\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f<\/h2>\n<p>The seasonal decline in new listings has arrived. Traditionally, there would be 80,000-100,000 new listings during the seasonal peak weeks, but we\u2019ve only cracked above 80,000 four times this year and never in back-to-back weeks.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Some context for those who believe that the new listings data resembles the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/articles\/is-the-u-s-in-a-housing-bubble\/\">\u043f\u0443\u0437\u044b\u0440\u044c \u043d\u0430 \u0440\u044b\u043d\u043a\u0435 \u0436\u0438\u043b\u044c\u044f<\/a> years: new listings during that time ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for <em>several years<\/em>. Also, we have a had a ton of crazy foreclosure headlines recently, so I wrote <a href=\"https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/articles\/dont-fall-for-a-fake-foreclosure-crisis\/\">\u042d\u0442\u0430 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0442\u044c\u044f<\/a> on Friday to bring some reality into the foreclosure data. As always, if housing in America was truly breaking, the new listings data will be the first place to see it, so the article shows how to track that properly.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u0412\u043e\u0442 \u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043e \u043d\u043e\u0432\u044b\u0445 \u043e\u0431\u044a\u044f\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f\u0445 \u0437\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0448\u043b\u0443\u044e \u043d\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043b\u044e \u0437\u0430 \u043f\u043e\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0434\u0432\u0430 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>2026: 73,109<\/li>\n<li>2025:\u00a0 71,521<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/29792099\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\"><\/noscript><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-price-cut-percentage\">\u041f\u0440\u043e\u0446\u0435\u043d\u0442 \u0441\u043d\u0438\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0446\u0435\u043d\u044b<\/h2>\n<p>Typically, about one-third of homes undergo price reductions before they sell, reflecting the dynamic nature of the housing market. For the most part, price-cut percentages this year have been lower than last year. This is a by-product of inventory growth slowing down and, in some weeks, the data being negative year over year.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In my 2026 home-price <a href=\"https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/articles\/housingwire-2026-housing-forecast\/\">\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437<\/a>, I had a negative 0.62% call for the year nationally. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/articles\/housing-affordability-is-improving-as-wages-outpace-home-price-growth\/\">Home-price growth<\/a> really isn\u2019t going anywhere this year, but the percentage of price cuts has been lower year over year for most of 2026. My forecast of negative -0.62% might be hard to achieve, as most of the home price indexes are showing price growth between 1% and 2%. However, with rates rising again, I might have a chance of being correct in 2026.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u041f\u0440\u043e\u0446\u0435\u043d\u0442 \u0441\u043d\u0438\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0446\u0435\u043d \u0437\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0448\u0435\u0434\u0448\u0443\u044e \u043d\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043b\u044e:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>2026: 40.60%<\/li>\n<li>2025: 41%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/29792107\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\"><\/noscript><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead-iran-conflict-2-0-the-fed-and-inflation\">The week ahead: Iran conflict 2.0, the Fed and inflation<\/h2>\n<p>This week is very simple: the Iran conflict news will be No. 1 again, as the bond market is really moving around this conflict. President Trump has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/iran\/\">called off<\/a> \u0442\u043e\u0442 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/other\/trump-threatens-massive-attack-on-iran-that-will-be-bigger-than-ever-before\/ar-AA28yiEz\">\u201cmassive\u201d attack <\/a>he had threatened on Thursday, so we will see how the market takes that news.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Then we have the Fed meeting on Wednesday where there is still a chance of a rate hike, but so much is priced into bonds now that it doesn\u2019t matter much if they hike or not. Finally, on Thursday, we have another inflation report that is important for the following Fed meetings.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mortgage rates hit a yearly high last week and even though housing demand is still positive year over year, it is slowing down, just not in a big way yet. Typically, in the past few years, when mortgage rates get above 6.64% and then break over 7%, housing demand slows. Housing data always improves when [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-63646","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v17.5 (Yoast SEO v18.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Home sales are positive but higher rates slowing demand - Houses Marketplace<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/housesmarketplace.com\/ru\/home-sales-are-positive-but-higher-rates-slowing-demand\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ru_RU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Home sales are positive but higher rates slowing demand\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Mortgage rates hit a yearly high last week and even though housing demand is still positive year over year, it is slowing down, just not in a big way yet. Typically, in the past few years, when mortgage rates get above 6.64% and then break over 7%, housing demand slows. 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Typically, in the past few years, when mortgage rates get above 6.64% and then break over 7%, housing demand slows. 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