{"id":63797,"date":"2026-08-15T03:00:17","date_gmt":"2026-08-15T01:00:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/housesmarketplace.com\/why-2026-foreclosure-gains-are-not-a-housing-crash-signal\/"},"modified":"2026-08-15T03:00:17","modified_gmt":"2026-08-15T01:00:17","slug":"why-2026-foreclosure-gains-are-not-a-housing-crash-signal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/housesmarketplace.com\/ru\/why-2026-foreclosure-gains-are-not-a-housing-crash-signal\/","title":{"rendered":"Why 2026 foreclosure gains are not a housing crash signal"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The quarterly New York Fed foreclosure data came out for Q2, and once again \u2014 to the surprise of many doomers \u2014 the index fell slightly, still below 2019 levels. Not only that, but this week\u2019s \u043e\u0442\u0447\u0435\u0442 \u043e \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u0430\u0436\u0430\u0445 \u0441\u0443\u0449\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0443\u044e\u0449\u0438\u0445 \u0434\u043e\u043c\u043e\u0432 <\/a>also showed housing inventory down year over year and sales slightly higher, with prices up 2.0% year over year, something that would be impossible if we had a surge of foreclosures coming to the market.\u00a0<\/p>\n

I know we get headlines every month or quarter with huge percentage increases in foreclosure data, but today I wanted I share a simple way for people to understand when foreclosures will become an issue. I also discussed this topic on \u0441\u0435\u0433\u043e\u0434\u043d\u044f\u0448\u043d\u044f\u044f \u0441\u0435\u0440\u0438\u044f<\/a> \u043f\u043e\u0434\u043a\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0430 HousingWire Daily. <\/p>\n

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\u0414\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043e \u043a\u043e\u043d\u0444\u0438\u0441\u043a\u0430\u0446\u0438\u0438 \u0438\u043c\u0443\u0449\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0430<\/h2>\n

One of the things I\u2019ve stressed when I talk at events this year is that we have had many recessions post-WWII but only one foreclosure crisis. That foreclosure crisis started with a massive credit boom from 2002-2005, and then a credit bust. That credit bust pushed foreclosures up, according to New York Fed data<\/a>, in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008. Then, the Great Recession happened. As you can see, none of that is happening now \u2014 we aren\u2019t even back to 2019 levels yet, and it\u2019s August 2026.<\/p>\n

Here is how the Fed tracks the data: New foreclosures. Number of individuals with foreclosures first appearing on their credit report during the past 3 months. Based on foreclosure information provided by lenders (account level foreclosure information) as well as through public records. <\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/strong>This is key to what I will present next, because I can explain why housing inventory was down year over year, even though for 3.5 years now headlines were showing big percentage increases in foreclosure data.<\/p>\n

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When you don\u2019t have a lot of distressed sellers in the mix, we just deal with the normal supply and demand equilibrium for housing; a surge of actual foreclosures in 2026 would have easily put the inventory data much higher in 2026.<\/p>\n

Keep it simple: housing demand is up 2.4% year to date and new listings didn\u2019t explode, so inventory growth slowed and declined only slightly year over year in the last existing home sales report this week.\u00a0 <\/p>\n

We track inventory differently than the NAR; we have no contract data in our inventory, so these are the homes available for sale. Inventory is up 0.78% fron the previous week.<\/p>\n