Data and analytics firm Verisk said that insured losses to property and automobiles from Winter Storm Fern could reach $4 billion, according to an initial analysis released by the company on Tuesday.
Another estimate from Karen Clark & Co. (KCC) is even higher. KCC reported that privately insured losses from Winter Storm Fern are estimated at $6.7 billion, including damage to residential, commercial and industrial properties due to freezing temperatures, snow, ice and wind. KCC is a Boston-based firm that specializes in catastrophe risk modeling.
“In all, Fern caused damage and insured losses across more than 30 states. Estimated losses from Winter Storm Fern are highest in Texas and Tennessee,” KCC’s Winter Storm Flash Estimate said.
The estimate from Verisk’s Catastrophe and Risk Solutions group reflects damage driven primarily by freezing conditions, with additional losses from wind and snow.
“Based on our early analysis, we estimate that insured losses from Winter Storm Fern could reach up to USD $4 billion, with freeze-related damage emerging as the biggest driver of claims,” Ned Kleiner, senior scientist for winter storm modeling at Verisk Catastrophe and Risk Solutions, said in an interview with HousingWire.
“What that means in practical terms is that prolonged cold and widespread icing — especially across states like Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Kentucky — increases the likelihood for burst pipes, power outages and interior water damage, which significantly increase repair costs.”
Winter Storm Fern affected large portions of the Midwest, Northeast, South, Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic regions from Jan. 23-26, bringing a mix of freezing rain, heavy snow and severe thunderstorms.
Freezing rain led to widespread power outages across Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia. The most severe ice, which was up to one inch, was reported from eastern Texas through northern Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Kentucky, raising the risk of burst pipes and related property damage.
“Fern was unusual because it brought a mix of hazards across a very large part of the country — from freezing rain in the Southeast to heavy snow in the Midwest and Northeast, and even severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes in parts of Alabama and Georgia,” Kleiner said. “That diversity of impacts makes loss estimation more complex.”
Heavy snowfall was reported across New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Illinois and Ohio, with accumulations exceeding one foot in several areas. Cold temperatures slowed repair efforts in some regions.
Severe thunderstorms in southern Alabama and southern Georgia produced wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, small hail and several tornado touchdowns, according to Verisk.
Early results from Verisk’s updated U.S. Winter Storm Model, scheduled for release in June 2026, indicate that 14 states, stretching from Texas to Massachusetts, could each sustain more than $50 million in insured losses.
If the estimates hold, Fern would rank as the third-costliest storm of its kind in U.S. history, behind Winter Storm Elliott in 2022 and Winter Storm Uri in 2021.
“This update used billions of dollars of claims, giving us confidence that the updated model captures important differences between losses from wind, snow, freezing rain and freeze,” Kleiner added.
The storm had an impact on mortgage activity, too, including mortgage applications and credit-pull activity.
“Application volume was down last week, led by a 14% drop in purchase applications. Winter Storm Fern likely had an impact as much of the country was snowed in, hampering homebuying activity,” said Joel Kan, vice president and deputy chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Xactus also cited winter weather as a factor in decreased borrower intent, which fell 3.76% from a week earlier.
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