As the U.S. housing crisis deepens and climate change intensifies, residents of affordable housing are vulnerable to dangerous and sometimes deadly extreme heat, according to new analysis from the Union of Concerned Scientists.
The report, titled “Colliding Crises,” examined nearly 8 million homes in key segments of the affordable housing market — including public and project-based subsidized housing, manufactured housing and homes supported by the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit program.
“Extreme heat is the deadliest climate impact and is colliding with the nation’s long-standing shortage in safe, affordable housing for people with the lowest incomes,” said Zoe Middleton, a co-author of the analysis and associate director for just climate resilience at the Union of Concerned Scientists. “As policymakers grapple with how to address the worsening climate and housing crises, they must take the health threat of extreme heat seriously by boosting investments in home weatherization, energy bill assistance and climate-resilient affordable housing.”
Breaking down the data
Researchers analyzed each county’s exposure to National Weather Service heat alerts between May and October 2024, which the group refers to as “Danger Season” because it represents the period when climate-fueled weather extremes are most severe in the United States.
The analysis found that nearly all residents in affordable housing experienced at least seven days of extreme heat alerts in 2024, while nearly half endured 21 or more days of warnings.
The largest shares of affected units were located in the Northeast and Southeast — with Texas, California and New York accounting for the greatest number of exposed homes.
Texas, New York, California, Florida and Ohio had the highest numbers of affordable homes exposed to one or more weeks of heat alerts.
Texas, California, New York, New Jersey and Louisiana saw the most homes facing three or more weeks of extreme heat warnings.
Puerto Rico, the District of Columbia, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Florida and New York had the highest percentages of households headed by people of color that experienced heat alerts.
Exposure inequity
The report noted that people of color face disproportionate risks from heat exposure, even when accounting for their higher representation in affordable housing overall.
Roughly half of all public and project-based affordable housing units exposed to at least one week of heat alerts were headed by a person of color. Two-thirds of those in areas with three or more weeks of alerts were households led by people of color.
“The health impacts of extreme heat are not equal,” said Dr. Juan Declet-Barreto, a co-author of the report and senior social scientist for climate vulnerability at the Union of Concerned Scientists. “People of color are already among those who live with the lowest incomes in the country, in substandard housing and without access to cooling resources or the ability to afford the costs of running air conditioners.
“These conditions could make them more vulnerable to heat-related illness or even death as climate-driven extremes become more frequent and intense.”
Expert recommendations
Affordable housing units are often older buildings constructed under outdated standards, lacking insulation, air conditioning and adequate shade.
To protect residents, the report calls for stronger policies to make both new and existing affordable housing more heat-resilient and energy efficient.
It also urges federal, state and local governments to expand access to home weatherization programs, improve energy affordability and ensure robust recovery funding for communities after climate-related disasters.
The Union of Concerned Scientists warns that reducing future harm will require cutting heat-trapping emissions from fossil fuels.
“If we continue to burn fossil fuels, dangerous heat will worsen and the lives and health of people living in affordable housing will be at particular risk,” said Dr. Amanda Fencl, co-author of the report and director of climate science at the organization. “Policymakers at all levels must act now to sharply curtail heat-trapping emissions while also making investments in climate-resilient affordable housing.”
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