One of the most encouraging data points for 2025 so far is that new listings have finally emerged from a two-year slump, exceeding 80,000 per week during the seasonal peak period. The question is: Have we already seen the highest new listings print for the year?
We are currently in the seasonal period where we should see the highest levels of new listings, but last week’s rebound was disappointingly weak. Generally, I prefer to wait two weeks after any holiday weekend to gain a clearer understanding of our weekly data. Last week, both the new listings and active inventory growth showed only mild increases. Let’s take a look at the data.
New listings data
The past two years marked the lowest periods for new home listings in history, which is concerning given that 70% to 80% of home sellers are also homebuyers. Last year, I forecasted that we would see around 80,000 new listings per week during peak periods, but that goal fell short, reaching only 75,000. So far this year, we’ve exceeded 80,000 listings for two weeks and I hope to see a few more weeks above this threshold before the seasonal decline begins.
What we want to avoid is an early downtrend and more sellers exiting the market, similar to what we experienced in the second half of 2022, which was not ideal. I am hopeful for another upward bounce in new listings in the coming week. Traditionally, seasonal peaks for new listings range from 80,000 to 110,000 per week, as observed from 2013 to 2019.
To give you some perspective, during the years of the housing bubble crash, new listings were soaring between 250,000 and 400,000 per week for many years. Here’s how many new listings we had last week over the past two years:
- 2025: 73,433
- 2024: 72,012
Weekly housing inventory data
The most significant development in the housing market for me has been the growth of inventory in 2024 and 2025. As someone who described the housing market as unhealthy in late 2020 and savagely unhealthy in early 2022, the inventory growth we’ve experienced over the past two years has been a blessing. Although it took some time for my hope in February 2021 regarding higher rates to happen, it’s better late than never. This week, we saw slow inventory growth, but I expect it to pick up next week.
- Weekly inventory change (May 30-June 6 ): Inventory rose from 803,519 to 808,564
- The same week last year (May 31-June 7): Inventory rose from 604,922 to 611,543
Price-cut percentage
In a typical year, about one-third of homes experience price reductions, highlighting the housing market’s dynamic nature. Many homeowners adjust their sale prices as inventory levels rise and mortgage rates stay elevated.
For my 2025 price forecast, I anticipate a modest increase in home prices of approximately 1.77%. This suggests that 2025 will again see a pessimistic real home-price forecast. In 2024, my forecast of a 2.33% increase proved inaccurate, primarily because mortgage rates fell toward 6% and demand improved in the second half of 2024. As a result, home prices increased by 4% in 2024.
The rise in price reductions this year compared to last year reinforces my cautious growth forecast for 2025.
- 2025: 39%
- 2024: 36%
10-year yield and mortgage rates
In my 2025 forecast, I anticipated the following ranges:
- Mortgage rates will be between 5.75% and 7.25%
- The 10-year yield will fluctuate between 3.80% and 4.70%
We just finished with jobs week and it didn’t disappoint with the volatility in the 10-year yield. However, since mortgage spreads have been improving, the rate volatility wasn’t as significant as it could have been. Last week, the 10-year yield fell following a weaker ADP report but then rose after the Jobs Friday report beat estimates. Additionally, Trump mentioned a potential meeting with China on Monday, which led to a slight rise in bond yields afterward. Mortgage rates started the week at 6.96%, fell toward 6.87% after the ADP report, then ended the week at 6.97%.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads have been elevated since 2022 but have improved since their peak in 2023. We experienced some drama with the spreads as the markets dealt with the tariffs, but things have improved as the market has calmed down. It’s been essential to see spreads get better on days when the 10-year yield goes up because that limits the damage of a higher 10-year yield.
If the spreads were as bad as they were at the peak of 2023, mortgage rates would currently be 0.67% higher. Conversely, if the spreads returned to their normal range, mortgage rates would be 0.83% to 0.63% % lower than today’s level. Historically, mortgage spreads have typically ranged between 1.60% and 1.80%.
Purchase application data
Last week, purchase applications increased by 18% year-over-year, down 4% from the previous week. We now have an 18-week winning streak on positive year-over-year growth and five straight weeks of double-digit growth during the peak seasonal month of May. Now that May is over, the season’s peak volume period traditionally has ended. So, 2025 was the first net positive year for purchase apps in many years. This data line has confused many people — in this recent HousingWire Daily podcast I try to explain why we have seen positive growth .
Here is the weekly data for 2025:
- 10 positive readings
- 8 negative readings
- 3 flat prints
- 18 straight weeks of positive year-over-year data
Total pending sales
The latest weekly data on total pending sales from Altos offers valuable insights into current trends in housing demand. Typically, mortgage rates around 6% are necessary for significant growth in the housing market. Although total pending home sales are slightly higher than last year, it’s surprising to see this data remain steady despite elevated rates in 2025. The seasonal peak period for our data has ended.
Weekly pending sales for the last week over the past several years:
- 2025: 402,833
- 2024: 393,632
Weekly pending sales
Our weekly pending home sales provide a week-to-week glimpse into the data; however, this data line can also be impacted by holiday weekends and exhibits a week’s bounce in sales. So, I will reserve judgment until next week, just as I did with the new listing data. Still, we are showing year-over-year growth.
Weekly pending sales for last week over the past several years:
- 2025: 69,363
- 2024: 67,649
The week ahead: Inflation and bond auctions
This week is inflation week again with two inflation reports and we have a few bond auctions which can move the markets. Also, you just never know what kind of crazy headlines we will get in this environment! On Monday, President Trump will meet with China to talk trade deals, so we’ll be watching that.
In one of the podcasts next week, I will share my take on the inflation data for the rest of the year, as many people, including Fed presidents, expect inflation to rise from its recent low of 2.1%. Also, we have the key weekly jobless claims report and this data line is starting to perk up.
As always, it will be key to see how the bond market reacts to inflation and labor data, as the battleground is set for the rest of the year with Godzilla tariffs still in place. And it will be interesting to see how new listings data reacts after inflation week.
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