American homeowners enter 2026 expecting higher insurance costs, growing climate risks and continued pressure on housing affordability.
Data from Kin’s inaugural Homeownership Trends Report shows insurance costs now rival mortgage rates and home prices as a key factor shaping where — and whether — Americans buy, stay or move.
Home insurance costs are rising faster than many other household expenses.
The average U.S. home insurance premium increased 24% between 2021 and 2024, according to the Consumer Federation of America — outpacing inflation by 11% over the same period.
Looking ahead, 82% of homeowners expect their premiums to rise in 2026. Most anticipate modest increases: 43% expect hikes of 1% to 5%. Another 29% expect increases of 6% to 10%, while 16% expect premiums to rise by more than 10%, the report said.
Insurance costs are increasingly shaping homebuying behavior. Nearly half of homeowners — 49% — say the cost of home insurance weighs “very heavily” or “seriously” on their purchasing decisions.
Concern about coverage adequacy is also growing.
Nearly one in three homeowners — 31% — say they are not confident they will be able to maintain adequate home insurance coverage through 2026. Nineteen percent plan to switch insurance providers in the coming year.
Climate risk and coverage gaps
Climate-related risk underpins many of these concerns.
Nearly all homeowners surveyed — 93% — expect climate-driven extreme weather to damage their homes within the next three years.
More than two-thirds — 68% — expect extreme weather events in their area to increase in frequency in 2026 compared with last year.
Climate risk is also affecting where homeowners are willing to live.
Florida and California top the list of states homeowners say they would avoid moving to because of extreme weather exposure, cited by 58% and 52% of respondents, respectively.
Other commonly avoided states include Hawaii, Louisiana, Texas and Alaska.
By contrast, fewer than 5% of respondents said they would avoid states such as Vermont, New Hampshire, Delaware, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Utah or South Dakota due to climate risk.
Nearly half of homeowners — 49% — say they are considering a move in 2026 because of climate-related concerns. Most potential moves would be local rather than long-distance.
Among those considering relocation, 41% would move within their current city or community, 35% would move elsewhere within their state and 25% would move to another state.
This pattern mirrors recent disaster-related relocations, where displaced homeowners often remained within commuting distance of their previous neighborhoods, Kin added.
Home prices expected to keep rising
Insurance pressures are unfolding alongside expectations of continued price growth in the housing market.
Eighty percent of homeowners expect home prices in their area to rise in 2026. Another 17% expect prices to remain stable, while just 3% anticipate declines.
Federal Housing Finance Agency data show home prices rose 2.2% year-over-year in 2025, continuing a 14-year upward trend. Forecasts for 2026 vary — with Fannie Mae projecting 1.3% growth and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) projecting a 4% increase.
Homeowners also expect higher upkeep costs. Eighty percent anticipate increases in home repair and maintenance expenses in 2026.
Mortgage rates still a barrier
Mortgage rates remain a sticking point for many homeowners considering a move. While rates declined in late 2025 following Federal Reserve cuts — falling from 7.04% in January to 6.12% in December — most homeowners remain skeptical about further drops.
Only 32% believe rates will “meaningfully drop” in 2026. Seventy-four percent say rates would need to fall to 5% or lower for them to consider buying another home, levels not currently expected by most forecasters.
“As we go into next year, the mortgage rate will be a little bit better,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR. “It’s not going to be a big decline, but it will be a modest decline that will improve affordability.”
Expectations vs. forecasts
Homeowners’ climate concerns align with scientific consensus.
The Fifth National Climate Assessment concludes that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense across the United States.
Economic forecasts are less certain. Sean Harper, founder and CEO of Kin, says homeowners may see more stability in 2026 than in recent years.
“We went through a period of economic instability, but it was driven by macroeconomic factors like inflation and interest rates that have since been absorbed,” Harper said.
He also expects fewer sharp insurance premium increases next year.
“Elevated inflation was one of the big drivers of premium increases in previous years, but inflation is now occurring at a more predictable pace,” said Harper. “Substantial premium increases were the story in 2024, but they weren’t the story in 2025 except in a few places like California, and they won’t be the story in 2026.”
The survey was conducted online by Pollfish on Dec. 10, 2025, among a nationally representative sample of 1,000 U.S. adults ages 18 to 65 who own single-family homes. Percentages were rounded to the nearest whole number.
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