Miami has country’s widest gap with 159 percent more sellers than buyers
The U.S. housing market is increasingly tilted in favor of buyers, with the number of home sellers outnumbering prospective buyers by 62.6% in September 2026, the widest gap in records dating to 2013, according to a new report from Redfin.
The imbalance, which widened from 56.9% in August, marks the fourth consecutive month the gap has reached a record, as buyer demand weakened and the number of homes available for sale climbed. The findings point to a growing divide between homeowners seeking to sell and households able or willing to purchase at prevailing housing costs.
Redfin estimated that 1.51 million sellers were active in the market in September, the highest number since March 2020. Meanwhile, the number of prospective buyers fell to 928,892, the lowest level in the company’s records, which extend back to 2013.
“This is a buyer’s market born out of caution, not strength,” said Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin. “Buyers have tremendous negotiating power in most of the country because so many other would-be buyers have been priced out of the market, or scared off by economic uncertainty. For house hunters who have the budget and job security to purchase a home in today’s market, that creates a unique opportunity: They can be picky, negotiate and even walk away if the deal doesn’t make sense financially or they find something they like better. The irony is that in terms of supply, these are some of the best conditions for buyers in many years–but they have arrived at a time when costs are so high that fewer people can afford to take advantage of them.”
Sun Belt Markets Lead the Shift
The shift toward buyers is particularly pronounced across the Sun Belt, where construction activity, rising inventories and softer demand have created an expanding pool of homes competing for fewer purchasers.
Forty-one of the 50 most populous U.S. metropolitan areas analyzed by Redfin were buyer’s markets in September, the highest proportion in the company’s records. Miami, Nashville and Houston had the largest seller surpluses for the second consecutive month. In the 13 markets with the biggest imbalances, sellers outnumbered buyers by more than two to one.
Miami recorded the country’s widest gap, with 158.9% more sellers than buyers, compared with 134.5% in August. Tampa followed, with a 103.7% surplus, up from 82.2% a month earlier. In Warren, Michigan, sellers outnumbered buyers by 47.1%, compared with 27.3% in August.
The Sun Belt’s supply overhang reflects years of robust homebuilding in markets where developers continued adding inventory even as affordability pressures and economic uncertainty weakened demand. Florida and Texas account for eight of the 13 markets with the largest seller surpluses.
In Florida, the cost of homeownership extends beyond mortgage payments and purchase prices. Insurance premiums and homeowners association fees have added to the financial burden facing prospective buyers, further constraining demand in some markets.
The shift was not uniform. The seller surplus narrowed in Detroit and St. Louis, although both remained buyer’s markets. In Detroit, sellers outnumbered buyers by 37.9%, down from 46.5% in August. In St. Louis, the gap narrowed to 24.5% from 26.9%.
Affordability Pressures Reshape the Market
The widening imbalance reflects two simultaneous developments: prospective buyers are pulling back, while homeowners continue putting properties on the market.
The number of buyers declined 2.4% from August, marking the fifth consecutive monthly drop. Sellers increased 1.2% over the same period.
Listings have accumulated as homes remain on the market longer without attracting buyers. New properties continue to enter the market, adding to the inventory that has yet to sell.
Some homeowners are listing after waiting years for mortgage rates to fall or buyer demand to recover. Others are moving because of employment changes, family circumstances, divorce or retirement. Elevated property values may also encourage some owners to sell before prices weaken further.
Still, homeowners with substantial equity and secure employment may have little incentive to accept lower offers or sell at all. That could limit the supply response if market conditions deteriorate further.
The result is a market in which greater selection and negotiating leverage do not necessarily translate into stronger transaction activity. High prices, mortgage costs and uncertainty continue to exclude many households from homeownership, even as the balance of available properties increasingly favors those who can afford to buy.
Redfin classifies a metropolitan area as a buyer’s market when sellers outnumber buyers by more than 10%, and as a seller’s market when sellers are outnumbered by more than 10%. Markets within that range are considered balanced.
Seller’s Markets Become Increasingly Rare
Only five of the 50 metropolitan areas analyzed by Redfin remained seller’s markets in September, the second consecutive month that the same five markets occupied the category.
Nassau County, New York, led the group, with 28.6% fewer sellers than buyers. Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, followed at 22.7% fewer sellers, while Newark, New Jersey, recorded a 18.5% shortfall. Milwaukee and San Francisco were also seller’s markets, with 16.1% and 10.6% fewer sellers than buyers, respectively.
The concentration of seller’s markets in the New York metropolitan area reflects years of constrained housing construction combined with demand near a major employment center. In San Francisco, renewed activity linked to wealth generated by the artificial-intelligence boom has contributed to stronger home sales and competition among buyers.
The contrast is reflected in pricing. Redfin reported that home-sale prices rose an average of 6.4% year over year across the five seller’s markets in August, compared with a 1% increase across buyer’s markets.
Two New England markets also showed signs of moving toward buyers. Sellers outnumbered buyers by 7.4% in Boston in September, after the market had been roughly balanced a month earlier. In Providence, Rhode Island, sellers exceeded buyers by 2.4%, reversing an August position in which sellers had been outnumbered by 7.4%.
A Buyer Advantage With Limits
The September figures suggest that the U.S. housing market is moving away from the broad seller advantage that characterized much of the pandemic-era housing boom. Yet the shift does not signal that homes have become broadly affordable or that buyers have regained the purchasing power needed to sustain a strong recovery in sales.
Instead, the data point to a market increasingly divided between households that can finance a purchase and those constrained by housing costs and uncertainty. For qualified buyers, rising inventory may create opportunities to negotiate prices, request concessions or walk away from unfavorable terms. For sellers, longer marketing periods and a deeper pool of competing listings may require more realistic pricing and greater flexibility.
The central tension is that housing supply is improving relative to demand, but the financial barriers to purchasing remain high. Until affordability improves or buyer confidence strengthens, a growing inventory of homes may continue to coexist with subdued demand.
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