One of the lesser known storylines in housing economics is that the improvement in mortgage spreads since 2023 has contributed to a noticeable trend in purchase application data for 2025, which is now showing 15 consecutive weeks of positive year-over-year growth.
Mortgage spreads recently turned negative due to market volatility, which resulted in an increase of 20 to 25 basis points in ставки по ипотечным кредитам. However, as the stock and bond markets have stabilized, mortgage spreads have improved. If we had not seen this improvement since the peak in 2023, we likely would not have experienced the growth in purchase applications this year.
Ипотечные спреды
Mortgage spreads — the difference between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 30-year mortgage rate — are a complex topic. Over the past decade, they haven’t received much attention because spreads were typical and not a concern. Under normal circumstances, the spread typically ranges from 1.60% to 1.80%. A historical review of these spreads shows that they are currently elevated.
If the spreads were as bad now as they were at the peak of 2023, mortgage rates would currently be 0.75% higher. Conversely, if the spreads returned to their normal range, mortgage rates would be 0.55% to 0.75% lower than today’s level — that would mean nearly 6% mortgage rates.
For 2025, I was looking for the spreads to improve only 0.27%-0.41% from a base average of 2.54% in 2024. That hasn’t happened so far this year. For the spreads to improve in the future, we need the markets to be calm and get more Fed rate cuts into the system.
Доходность по 10-летним облигациям и ставки по ипотечным кредитам
В моем Прогноз на 2025 год, Я ожидал следующие диапазоны:
- Ставки по ипотеке будут между 5,75% и 7,25%.
- Доходность 10-летних облигаций будет колебаться между 3,80% и 4,70%.
The 10-year yield experienced fluctuations this week, surpassing 4.50% before dropping back down. However, mortgage rates remained relatively stable due to improved mortgage spreads, which help mitigate the impact of rising yields. On Friday night, Moody’s downgraded U.S. debt, causing the 10-year yield to increase by a few basis points. We’ll see how the markets react to this on Monday.
Technically speaking, this downgrade doesn’t change the status of those holding U.S. Treasuries, so many market participants are not overly concerned about it. However, the timing was not ideal, as the Republicans are working on their budget this weekend.
Данные заявки на покупку
Purchase application data was up 18% year over year last week, coming off a 13% year-over-year print the previous week. I traditionally weigh the purchase application data from the second week of January to the first week of May, since volumes tend to fall after May. So, seeing this growth with elevated rates is a surprise. Usually, we see this type of data when mortgage rates move from 6.64% toward 6%. Remember, the purchase application data looks out 30-90 days, so you won’t see this in this week’s existing home sales report or possibly even next month’s either.
Вот еженедельные данные за 2025 год:
- 9 positive readings
- 6 отрицательных показаний
- 3 плоских отпечатка
- 15 straight weeks of positive year-over-year data
Всего ожидаемых продаж
The latest weekly data on total pending sales from Альты provides valuable insights into current trends in housing demand. Typically, it takes mortgage rates nearing 6% to foster real growth in the housing market. While total pending home sales are slightly higher than last year, it is surprising to see this data remain steady despite elevated rates in 2025. Fortunately, mortgage spreads have improved from the high levels seen in 2023; otherwise, we wouldn’t have this conversation.
Ожидаемые еженедельные продажи за последнюю неделю за последние несколько лет:
- 2025: 409,896
- 2024: 400,653
- 2023: 387,251
Еженедельные данные инвентаризации жилья
In great news for the housing market in 2024 and 2025, we’re seeing an increase in inventory! It’s a positive step toward getting things back to normal levels, just like we had before the pandemic. More homes available should help the market work more smoothly over the long run. Let’s celebrate this seasonal uptick in inventory as a step in the right direction!
- Weekly inventory change (May 9-May 16): Inventory rose from 755,895 к 767,274
- The same week last year (May 10-May 17): Inventory rose from 568,557 к 578,015
- В 2022 году рекордное дно запасов составило 240,497
- Пик запасов на 2025 год составляет 767,274
- Для некоторого контекста активные объявления за ту же неделю в 2015 году были 1,124,747
Данные о новых объявлениях
Another positive development for 2025 is that new listing data is on the rise. Last week, we reached the minimum forecast of 80,000 listings during the seasonal peak period. Although there was a slight decrease last week, it’s encouraging to note that both new listings data and purchase applications are up compared to last year. This hasn’t occurred over the last few years. We can attribute this growth to the improvements in mortgage spreads.
Чтобы дать вам перспективу, во время годы краха пузыря на рынке жилья, Новые листинги росли от 250 000 до 400 000 в неделю в течение многих лет. Рост, который мы видим в данных о новых листингах, просто пытается вернуться к норме, где сезонные пики составляют от 80 000 до 110 000 в неделю. Национальные данные о новых листингах за последнюю неделю за предыдущие несколько лет:
- 2025: 76,112
- 2024: 67,530
- 2023: 59,072
Процент снижения цены
В типичном году около трети домов подвергаются снижению цен, что подчеркивает динамичную природу рынка жилья. Поскольку уровни запасов увеличиваются, а ставки по ипотеке растут, многие домовладельцы вносят коррективы в свои цены продажи.
In my 2025 price forecast, I anticipated a modest increase in home prices of around 1.77%. This means yet another year of a negative real home prices for 2025. What can make my forecast wrong is a drop in mortgage rates to near 6%, which can make my forecast too low again. In 2024, my price forecast of 2.33% was incorrect as it was too low, and I lost it when mortgage rates headed toward 6%.
Увеличение снижения цен в этом году по сравнению с прошлым подтверждает обоснованность моего консервативного прогноза роста на 2025 год. Ниже приведена сводка снижения цен за предыдущие недели за последние несколько лет:
- 2025: 37.4%
- 2024: 34%
- 2023: 30%
The week ahead: Debt downgrade, Fed speeches and home sales
We will see how the market handles the debt downgrade on Sunday night and Monday morning, and we’ll also get any update on the new budget. We have a lot of Fed presidents talking this week as well and we always like to monitor how the market reacts to their take.
We also have both existing and new home sales reports coming up. The existing home sales report for April might disappoint a tad from expectation and remember the growth we have seen in purchase apps recently looks out 30-90 days. We always keep an eye out on jobless claims data, which came in ok this last week.
Hopefully, the stock and bond markets will behave this week, as mortgage spreads have improved. With the 10-year yield still elevated, the housing market needs these spreads to stay at the low 2025 levels.
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