Housing inventory growth is starting to stall, despite elevated mortgage rates. As new listings begin their seasonal decline, we might have already reached our peak percentage growth rate for 2025. The recent stalling has already gradually reduced the year-over-year growth percentage by a slight amount.
For the rest of the year I’ll be watching to see if lower mortgage rates make the inventory data start to decline earlier than the past few years, or, if for some reason mortgage rates get well over 7%, whether inventory growth begins to pick up like it did in late 2023 when mortgage rates got to 8%. Let’s take a look at this week’s tracker together.
Еженедельные данные инвентаризации жилья
As I have emphasized in 2025 and 2024, inventory growth has been the best story in housing as we transition from a дико нездоровый housing market to a normal one. Some people were surprised by last week’s отчет о продажах существующих домов, which showed the inventory of existing homes declined slightly. However, the НАР inventory data typically peaks in the summer, so if we don’t see much growth in that data line, it’s not shocking. Our Altos data provides fresh weekly inventory data that isn’t tied to a home in contract, giving us a real look at what is available for sale.
Last week, inventory growth slowed from the previous week’s growth rate.
- Weekly inventory change (July 18-July 25): Inventory rose from 856,751 к 860,426
- The same week last year (July 19-July 26): Inventory rose from 668,358 к 677,246
Данные о новых объявлениях
It appears that the peak week for new listings in 2025 was May 23, with a total of 83,143 listings. While I was pleased to hit my minimum weekly target of 80,000 new listings, I was disappointed that we didn’t see a few weeks with numbers between 80,000 and 100,000, which would be typical for a peak new listings period. But, I will celebrate the victories as they come, especially since we didn’t achieve this level at all in 2023 or 2024, which were the lowest new listing years in U.S. history.
Чтобы дать вам некоторую перспективу, во время годы краха пузыря на рынке жилья, Количество новых объявлений росло от 250 000 до 400 000 в неделю в течение многих лет. Вот данные о новых объявлениях за последнюю неделю за последние два года:
- 2025: 71,521
- 2024: 68,404
Процент снижения цены
In a typical year, approximately one-third of homes experience price reductions, highlighting the dynamic nature of the housing market. Homeowners adjust their sale prices as inventory levels rise and mortgage rates stay elevated. With more inventory and higher rates, our price-cut percentage data is higher than last year.
Для моего Прогноз цен на 2025 год, я ожидал скромного роста цен на жилье примерно на 1,77%. Это говорит о том, что в 2025 году, вероятно, снова будут отрицательные реальные цены на жилье. В 2024 году мой прогноз роста на 2,33% оказался неточным, в первую очередь потому, что ставки упали примерно до 6%, а спрос улучшился во второй половине года. В результате цены на жилье выросли на 4% в 2024 году.
Рост снижения цен в этом году по сравнению с прошлым годом подтверждает мой осторожный прогноз роста на 2025 год. Вот процент домов, цены на которые снизились на предыдущей неделе за последние два года:
- 2025: 41.6%
- 2024: 39%
Данные заявки на покупку
Last week, the purchase application data showed a 3% week-to-week increase and a 22% year-over-year growth. This data line has confused pretty much everyone in America, so I decided to write an in-depth article about the growth we have seen this year.
The key point to remember about 2025 is that the increase in purchase application data has occurred despite mortgage rates not decreasing from 6.64% to 6%. This rate range has been the only one in which the data has improved beyond the typical seasonal demand curve observed in purchase application data.
Вот еженедельные данные за 2025 год:
- 13 positive readings
- 10 отрицательных показаний
- 5 плоских отпечатков
- 25 straight weeks of positive year-over-year data
- 12 consecutive weeks of double-digit growth year over year
Еженедельные ожидаемые продажи
Our weekly pending home sales provide a week-to-week glimpse into the data; however, this data line can also be impacted by holidays and any short-term shocks. We did see some growth week to week here, and it’s still slightly higher than last year.
Weekly pending sales for last week:
- 2025: 70,609
- 2024: 64,765
Всего ожидаемых продаж
The latest total pending sales data from Альты provides valuable insights into current trends in housing demand. Last year, we observed a significant shift when mortgage rates decreased from 6.64% to around 6%. The year-over-year growth we are experiencing this year is mostly due to a low bar. Remember: comparable data for 2024 will be very low until November for the existing home sales report as well.
Total pending sales:
- 2025: 384, 307
- 2024: 382,429
Доходность по 10-летним облигациям и ставки по ипотечным кредитам
В моем Прогноз на 2025 год, Я ожидал следующие диапазоны:
- Ставки по ипотеке от 5.75% до 7.25%
- Доходность 10-летних облигаций колеблется между 3,80% и 4,70%.
Last week was another week of crazy headlines, with President Trump even visiting the renovations в Федеральный резерв with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, but not much went on with ставки по ипотечным кредитам. The 10-year yield didn’t fluctuate too much, and mortgage rates started the week at 6.78% and ended the week at 6.81%. It’s jobs and Fed week coming up, so get ready for some market moves based on the data and the Fed’s announcements.
Ипотечные спреды
The improvement in mortgage spreads in 2025 has significantly helped the housing market, as demand could have been worse if mortgage spreads hadn’t improved. With more rate cuts and a dovish tone from the Fed, the spreads can slowly improve over time. I was looking for a 0.27%-0.41% improvement in 2025, working from a 2.54% average in 2024. So far, we haven’t hit that level, but we’ve gotten really close.
If the spreads were as bad as they were at the peak of 2023, mortgage rates would currently be 0.76 % higher. Conversely, if the spreads returned to their normal range, mortgage rates would be 0.54%-0.74% lower than today’s level. Historically, mortgage spreads have ranged between 1.60% and 1.80%.
The best levels of normal spreads would mean mortgage rates at 6.07% to 6.27% today, a notable difference.
The week ahead: It’s jobs week and Fed week!
There isn’t much more to add, except that we have a dramatic week ahead for economic news, with four labor reports and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. The recent jobless claims data has shown improvement, which is an important indicator that the Fed closely monitors.
The key points from the jobs report released on Friday will include private payroll data, which focuses on employment excluding government workers, as well as trends in wage growth. These two factors are important indicators that the Federal Reserve is monitoring. When it comes to the Fed, the language used, as well as the questions and answers in the presser, are critical.
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