Last week, housing inventory levels decreased noticeably, while our weekly pending sales showed a notable increase compared to the same period last year. Was the decrease in inventory primarily due to the seasonal decline in housing stock, or did the increase in demand contribute to lowering the inventory unmbers? Let’s dive into this weekend’s tracker to find out.
Еженедельные данные инвентаризации жилья
Housing inventory growth during the prime selling season was up 33% year over year, and recently it has moved lower toward 16%. As demand picked up slightly, and new listings data began to decline, the growth rate of inventory has slowed by half, but remains up year over year in a healthy manner. The year-over-year growth has provided a much more buyer-friendly marketplace, but we are entering the seasonal decline in inventory for 2025.
- Weekly inventory change (Oct. 31-Nov. 7 ): Inventory fell from 856,701 к 842,242
- The same week last year (Nov. 1-Nov. 8): Inventory fell from 735,663 к 721,576
Данные о новых объявлениях
Over the past three weeks, our Трекер рынка жилья has shown some fluctuating data, but things seem to be returning to normal. Last week, we saw some growth in new listings even as we enter a seasonal decline period. Once again, in 2025, the new listings data is not exhibiting any signs of seller stress.
Чтобы дать вам некоторую перспективу, во время годы краха пузыря на рынке жилья, Количество новых объявлений росло от 250 000 до 400 000 в неделю в течение многих лет. Вот данные о новых объявлениях за последнюю неделю за последние два года:
- 2025: 55,481
- 2024: 48,863
Процент снижения цены
Обычно за год цены на жилье снижаются примерно на треть, что свидетельствует о динамичности рынка жилья. Владельцы жилья корректируют цены продаж по мере роста запасов и сохранения высоких ипотечных ставок. В связи с увеличением запасов и ростом ставок, наши данные по проценту снижения цен выше, чем в прошлом году.
Для моего Прогноз цен на 2025 год, I anticipated a modest increase in home prices of approximately 1.77%. This suggests that 2025 will likely see negative real home prices again. The rise in price reductions this year compared to last year reinforces my cautious growth forecast for 2025.
Вот процент домов, цены на которые снизились на предыдущей неделе за последние два года:
- 2025: 41.7%
- 2024: 40%
Ставки ипотечного кредитования и доходность за 10 лет
В моем Прогноз на 2025 год, Я ожидал следующие диапазоны:
- Ставки по ипотеке от 5.75% до 7.25%
- Доходность 10-летних облигаций колеблется между 3,80% и 4,70%.
It was an eventful week for the bond market. Although it was supposed to be jobs week, the usual data we rely on was not available due to the government shutdown. However, the positive ADP report and ISM new orders caused bond yields to rise. The following day, we received labor data that was softer than expected, resulting in a decline in yields.
Overall, the 10-year yield is currently near its yearly lows. This trend is not a result of cooling inflation, but rather a reflection of a weakening labor market, particularly in 2025. The 10-year yield ended up closing roughly where it started the week at 4.10% and mortgage rates ended the week just a tad lower at 6.32%, according to Ежедневные новости ипотеки, с Данные о блокировке скорости опроса closing at 6.31%.
Ипотечные спреды
Mortgage spreads have been the best story for mortgage rates in 2025. We are only 0.29% basis points away from normal levels again. The main thing to remember is that mortgage rates would not get near 6% if the spreads didn’t improve this year, and we still have some room for improvement next year.
Historically, mortgage spreads have ranged between 1.60% and 1.80%. If the spreads today were as bad as they were at the peak of 2023, mortgage rates would currently be 1.01 percentage points higher. Conversely, if the spreads returned to their normal range, mortgage rates would be 0.59% to 0.39% lower than today’s level. With normal spreads, mortgage rates would be at 5.83% to 6.03% today.
Данные заявки на покупку
We’ve had 14 weeks of testing the housing data in 2025 with mortgage rates under 6.64%. In the last few years, housing data has performed better when mortgage rates have fallen below 6.64% and headed toward 6%.
Over the last 14 weeks, we have had eight positive prints, six negative prints and 14 consecutive weeks of double-digit year-over-year growth in purchase apps. Last week saw a 1% decline from the previous week but a 26% increase year-over-year.
Earlier in the year, we saw healthy year-over-year growth, but the weekly data was choppy. The last 14 weeks have been the best of the year, but I would like to see 4 to 6 more weeks of positive week-to-week data. Usually, when rates increase, it does impact the weekly data for next week.
Вот еженедельные данные за 2025 год:
- 20 положительных показаний
- 17 negative readings
- 6 плоских отпечатков
- 40 straight weeks of positive year-over-year data
- 27 consecutive weeks of double-digit growth year over year
Еженедельные ожидаемые продажи
Our weekly pending home sales have been quite volatile, mainly due to the impact of a two-week holiday and the recent AWS outage that affected one of our reporting weeks. However, it appears that things are returning to normal, and we’ve observed a nice week-to-week increase.
On a year-over-year basis, we are showing significant growth. Remember that last year at this time, mortgage rates surged toward 7%, so take that into account when comparing year-over-year data. Nonetheless, mortgage rates near 6% can have a positive impact on the housing market.
Ожидаемые продажи за прошлую неделю:
- 2025: 59,245
- 2024: 51,277
The week ahead: No inflation week yet
Typically, I would refer to this as inflation week, but until the government shutdown is resolved, the focus will be on some significant bond auctions that could introduce volatility. Additionally, a few speeches by Федеральный резерв presidents may also impact the market. We would normally see retail sales data, but that is unavailable during the shutdown as well. Still, there are still enough events this week to influence rates.
English