Why aren’t home sales crashing as they did in 2022? Right now we have elevated ставки по ипотечным кредитам, trade war неопределенность, rising property taxes and home insurance, terrible consumer confidence data and a downgrade of the government’s debt, among other factors. But, housing demand continues to hold up, surprising people who can’t explain why home sales aren’t crashing anymore given elevated mortgage rates. So, let me try to make sense of it.
Remember, the bar is so low we can trip over it, but millions of people buy homes every year and we are still on pace to have nearly 5 million total home sales in 2025.
Данные заявки на покупку
In a total shocker for 2025 — which is receiving no airtime whatsoever — purchase application data from last week showed 20% year-over-year growth and 10% week-to-week growth. People have no idea what to make of this data line in 2025, so most tend to ignore talking about it. I wrote Эта статья last week to give some perspective, but last week was one of the best weeks in years.
Вот еженедельные данные за 2025 год:
- 11 positive readings
- 8 отрицательных показаний
- 3 плоских отпечатка
- 19 straight weeks of positive year-over-year data
Еженедельные ожидаемые продажи
Our weekly pending home sales provide a week-to-week glimpse into the data; however, this data line can also be impacted by holiday weekends and any short-term shocks. Last week’s data was a bit soft, most likely due to the holiday weekend, but we saw a bounce back in sales and we are still showing year-over-year growth with mortgage rates near 7%.
Weekly pending sales for last week over the last two years:
- 2025: 72,039
- 2024: 68,916
Всего ожидаемых продаж
Последние еженедельные данные по общему объему ожидаемых продаж от Альты предлагает ценную информацию о текущих тенденциях спроса на жилье. Обычно ставки по ипотеке около 6% необходимы для значительного роста на рынке жилья. Хотя общий объем незавершенных продаж домов немного выше, чем в прошлом году, удивительно видеть, что эти данные остаются стабильными, несмотря на повышенные ставки в 2025 году. Сезонный пиковый период для наших данных закончился.
Ожидаемые еженедельные продажи за последнюю неделю за последние несколько лет:
- 2025: 405,489
- 2024: 395,923
All in all, the housing market is not only experiencing a healthier inventory year, but demand is holding up even with elevated mortgage rates, crazy headlines and one bear market print in stocks. Not too shabby if you ask me.
Доходность по 10-летним облигациям и ставки по ипотечным кредитам
В моем Прогноз на 2025 год, Я ожидал следующие диапазоны:
- Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 7.25%
- The 10-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.70%
We had an eventful week, as both inflation reports came in tame, taking the 10-year yield to as low as 4.32% on the night when Israel attacked Iran. However, we saw no push into the 10-year yield or the U.S. dollar as a safety play on Friday as stocks sold off. All in all, mortgage rates didn’t move too much, as we went from 6.95% to 6.85% and ended the week at 6.89%. Improved mortgage spreads do limit the upside damage in mortgage rates when the 10-year yield rises.
Ипотечные спреды
Спреды по ипотеке выросли с 2022 года, но улучшились с момента своего пика в 2023 году. Мы столкнулись с некоторой драмой со спредами, поскольку рынки справлялись с тарифы, но ситуация улучшилась, поскольку рынок успокоился. It’s been critical to see spreads get better on days when the 10-year yield goes up because that limits the damage of a higher 10-year yield.
If the spreads were as bad as they were at the peak of 2023, mortgage rates would currently be 0.71% higher. Conversely, if the spreads returned to their normal range, mortgage rates would be 0.79% to 0.59% % lower than today’s level. Historically, mortgage spreads have typically ranged between 1.60% and 1.80%.
Еженедельные данные инвентаризации жилья
Наиболее значимое событие в Рынок жилья для меня был рост инвентарь в 2024 и 2025 годах. Как человек, который описал рынок жилья как нездоровый в конце 2020 года и дико нездоровый in early 2022, the inventory growth we’ve experienced over the past two years has been a blessing. Two weeks ago, the increase in inventory was a bit slow, but we had a good pick-up up this week, as the housing market is heading back to normal inventory levels, which will lay the foundation for many years to come.
- Weekly inventory change (June 6-June 13): Inventory rose from 808,564 к 825,761
- The same week last year (June 7-June 14): Inventory rose from 611,543 к 620,622
Данные о новых объявлениях
One of the forecasts I got wrong last year was that the new listings would reach at least 80,000 per week during the seasonal peak period — that didn’t happen. This year, I have maintained that forecast and we have exceeded 80,000 twice so far. However, over the last two weeks, the growth has been slower than I expected. I was hoping to see some weeks with numbers ranging between 80,000 and 100,000, but I am running out of time for that to occur. We did see a bounce this week, but again, lower than I would have liked.
Чтобы дать вам некоторую перспективу, во время годы краха пузыря на рынке жилья, new listings were soaring between 250,000 and 400,000 per week for many years. Last week’s new listings data over the past two years:
- 2025: 78,289
- 2024: 71,486
Процент снижения цены
В типичном году около трети домов испытывают снижение цен, что подчеркивает динамичную природу рынка жилья. Многие домовладельцы корректируют свои цены продажи, поскольку уровни запасов растут, а ставки по ипотеке остаются высокими.
For my 2025 price forecast, I anticipated a modest increase in home prices of approximately 1.77%. This suggests that 2025 will again see a negative real home price forecast. In 2024, my forecast of a 2.33% increase proved inaccurate, primarily because mortgage rates fell toward 6% and demand improved in the second half of 2024. As a result, home prices ended up increasing by 4% in 2024.
Рост снижения цен в этом году по сравнению с прошлым годом подтверждает мой осторожный прогноз роста на 2025 год.
- 2025: 39.5%
- 2024: 36%
The week ahead: Fed week, Israel and Iran, retail sales and housing starts
Do I need to add anything beyond that headline? We have an enormous week ahead with significant data releases, a Федеральный резерв meeting and ongoing questions surrounding the war in the Middle East. Additionally, jobless claims have been trending upward lately.
The key for the Fed meeting is to listen to their language on the risk of labor versus inflation, since the labor data has become softer but the inflation data has not yet worsened. As always, I’ll be keeping a close eye on the data this week.
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