Mortgage rates have been slowly decreasing, but is this drop significant enough to influence our weekly housing data? Keep in mind that our weekend tracker reports provide insights months ahead of the reports most Americans typically read. Therefore, we closely monitor changes in our data trends whenever ставки по ипотечным кредитам fluctuate. The last two weeks have been particularly noteworthy, and I wanted to discuss this before the July 4th holiday impacts our data over the next two weeks since it falls on a Friday.
Доходность по 10-летним облигациям и ставки по ипотечным кредитам
В моем Прогноз на 2025 год, Я ожидал следующие диапазоны:
- Ставки по ипотеке от 5.75% до 7.25%
- Доходность 10-летних облигаций колеблется между 3,80% и 4,70%.
We had a lot of drama again last week, with speeches к Федеральный резерв Chairman Jerome Powell and other regional Fed presidents, and then President Trump starting to implement the shadow Fed president protocol. With all the Fed drama, the 10-year yield declined for the week and mortgage rates also fell.
However, housing data tends to perform better when mortgage rates move lower from 6.64% toward 6%. We are getting closer, as mortgage rates fell from 6.84% to 6.72% by the end of the week. Additionally, the 10-year yield fell to a peak of around 4.40% and then to a weekly low of around 4.23% this week, indicating some movement to the downside. Now with the move lower in rates, we have seen some stabilization in our weekly data lines.
Ипотечные спреды
Mortgage spreads have been elevated since 2022 but have improved since their peak in 2023. We experienced some drama with the spreads in Апрель as the markets dealt with the tariffs, but things have improved as the market has успокоился. Крайне важно было увидеть улучшение спредов в те дни, когда доходность 10-летних облигаций растет, поскольку это ограничивает ущерб от более высокой доходности 10-летних облигаций.
If the spreads were as bad as they were at the peak of 2023, mortgage rates would currently be 0.65% higher. Conversely, if the spreads returned to their normal range, mortgage rates would be 0.85% to 0.65% lower than today’s level. Historically, mortgage spreads have typically ranged between 1.60% and 1.80%.
Данные заявки на покупку
The most confusing data line in America today is the purchase application data related to the existing home sales market. It has now experienced 21 weeks of year-over-year growth, with the last eight weeks showing double-digit year-over-year growth. However, nobody wants to discuss this because they don’t understand what it means.
To keep it simple, since the bar is so low over the next five months, we will show year-over-year growth in sales, even if home sales data remains flat. Since we are working from record-low levels, simply having mortgage rates fall this year, combined with new listing data growing year over year, has boosted this index to show double-digit growth over the last eight weeks. The percentage of cash buyers in sales is falling, but mortgage buyers have been applying in a pro-growth manner in 2025. Just look at it as small year-over-year growth over the next five months.
Вот еженедельные данные за 2025 год:
- 11 положительных прочтений
- 9 отрицательных показаний
- 4 flat prints
- 21 straight weeks of positive year-over-year data
Еженедельные ожидаемые продажи
Our weekly pending home sales provide a week-to-week glimpse into the data; however, this data line can also be impacted by holidays and any short-term shocks. Still, last week’s data showed year-over-year growth in our weekly pending sales and we are close to year-to-date highs, showing that data has stayed firm, without mortgage rates breaking below 6.64% and heading toward 6%
Ожидаемые еженедельные продажи за последнюю неделю за последние два года:
- 2025: 74,130
- 2024: 66,645
Всего ожидаемых продаж
Последние еженедельные данные по общему объему ожидаемых продаж от Альты offers valuable insights into current trends in housing demand. Typically, mortgage rates around 6% are necessary for significant growth in the housing market. For this week, our total pending home sales data decreased slightly to levels below those of last year.
Ожидаемые еженедельные продажи за последнюю неделю за последние несколько лет:
- 2025: 396,741
- 2024: 397,765
Еженедельные данные инвентаризации жилья
I couldn’t be happier to see the active inventory grow as it has this year. Just getting the active inventory back to the bottom of 2019 levels is a healthy development, as I wrote about here. Year over year, inventory continues to increase at an impressive rate, up 29%. However, over the past two weeks, inventory growth has slowed as mortgage rates have fallen closer to the year-to-date lows.
I will keep an eye out for this throughout the rest of the year if mortgage rates fall further. The next two weeks of our weekly data will be hit with the July 4th holiday.
- Weekly inventory change (June 20-June 27): Inventory rose from 828,890 к 831,110
- The same week last year (June 21-June 28): Inventory rose from 634,120 к 645,713
Данные о новых объявлениях
The new listing data had a nice snap-back last week, reaching above 80,000 again, which is the minimum target level I set for 2025. We haven’t been able to achieve back-to-back weeks of growth above this level, which has been disappointing, but I will take the inventory victories as they come. This data line will get impacted over the next two weeks as well.
Чтобы дать вам некоторую перспективу, во время годы краха пузыря на рынке жилья, Количество новых объявлений росло от 250 000 до 400 000 в неделю в течение многих лет. Вот данные о новых объявлениях за последнюю неделю за последние два года:
- 2025: 81,063
- 2024: 70,553
Процент снижения цены
In a typical year, approximately one-third of homes experience price reductions, highlighting the dynamic nature of the housing market. Homeowners adjust their sale prices as inventory levels rise and mortgage rates stay elevated. This data line has stabilized over the last two weeks, as mortgage rates have fallen.
Для моего Прогноз цен на 2025 год, I anticipated a modest increase in home prices of approximately 1.77%. This suggests that 2025 will likely see negative real home prices again. In 2024, my forecast of a 2.33% increase proved inaccurate, primarily because rates fell to around 6% and demand improved in the second half of the year. As a result, home prices increased by 4% in 2024.
The rise in price reductions this year compared to last year reinforces my cautious growth forecast for 2025. Here are the percentages of homes that saw price reductions in the previous week in the previous two years:
- 2025: 40%
- 2024: 38%
Предстоящая неделя: неделя вакансий!
Jobs, jobs, jobs. It’s a short week because of the holiday, but a huge week because this is the last jobs week before the next Fed meeting. As pressure mounts on Jerome Powell to cut rates, the labor market must hold up for the Fed to maintain its wait-and-see monetary policy. While the continuing jobless claims data has been rising toward three-year highs, the weekly initial claims data is still not at a level that concerns the Fed yet.
This is an important week because if the labor report shows weakness, it could push the 10-year yield low enough to bring mortgage rates below 6.64%, which could increase demand. However, the bond market needs to believe that the labor market is weakening for this to happen.
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