The weekly home sales data for last week was a big surprise. If someone had told me at the beginning of the year that we would have ставки по ипотечным кредитам fluctuating between 6.64% and 7.25%, trade war escalations, stocks slipping into bear market territory and confidence data collapsing — I would think housing demand would be negative year to date and year over year.
Yet, amid all those conditions, our weekly data showed positive year-over-year growth in housing demand following the first reversal from lower rates this year, where they briefly surpassed 7%. This unexpected resilience has genuinely amazed me, even as someone who highlights that historic lows in home sales has given us a low bar. Can this trend continue with elevated mortgage rates?
Как инвентарь increases and price growth slows, we are positioning ourselves for a better housing market when mortgage rates fall toward 6%. If home prices were rising above the inflation rate and inventory wasn’t increasing much, it would indicate an unhealthy housing market. However, that is not the case for 2025.
Данные заявки на покупку
Given the recent increase in mortgage rates, I anticipated a more significant decline in both the week-to-week and year-over-year data. Surprisingly, the week-to-week decline was only 5%, notably less than my expectations. Furthermore, the year-over-year growth has improved, rising from 10% to 13%. This can likely be attributed to the low baseline we are currently working from.
I expected this trend if mortgage rates were moving from 6.64% down toward 6%, not staying elevated as they have. Also, the new home sales market’s monthly purchase application отчет shows 14% month-to-month growth and 5.5% year-over-year growth.
Вот еженедельные данные за 2025 год:
- 7 положительных прочтений
- 4 negative readings
- 3 плоских отпечатка
Double-digit year-over-year growth in purchase applications was not in my cards unless mortgage rates were headed from 6.64% toward 6%. This is why the data line surprised me, especially this week, more than any week this year. Last year, when mortgage rates rose from 6.63% toward 7.50%, we had 14 negative prints, 2 flat and 2 positive prints with zero year-over-year growth weeks.
Еженедельный общий объем ожидаемых продаж
Последние еженедельные данные по общему количеству ожидаемых контрактов от Альты offers valuable insights into current trends in housing demand. Usually, it takes mortgage rates to trend closer to 6% to get real growth in the housing demand data lines, but we have recently seen some pick-up on the weekly sales data, and now our total pending sales data is positive year over year. Over the next few weeks, we will have more challenging comps on our weekly sales data.
Еженедельные ожидаемые контракты за последнюю неделю за последние несколько лет:
- 2025: 391,488
- 2024: 384,614
- 2023: 335,017
Доходность по 10-летним облигациям и ставки по ипотечным кредитам
В моем Прогноз на 2025 год, I anticipated the following ranges:
- Ставки по ипотеке будут между 5,75% и 7,25%.
- Доходность 10-летних облигаций будет колебаться между 3,80% и 4,70%.
Last week presented promising developments for the 10-year yield and mortgage rates. In the face of concerns about potential debt issues and a bond market losing it, I maintained an optimistic outlook. In the absence of significant escalation headlines, I foresaw that the 10-year yield should stabilize around 4.35%.
This optimistic prediction was validated, as the 10-year yield consistently hovered around this level throughout the week, coinciding with a decline in mortgage rates. Overall, the combination of falling yields and decreasing mortgage rates indicates a less stressful bond market, which I see as a positive trend from prior weeks.
Powell’s hawkish speech last week, which led to a decline in bond yields, impressed me. The fact that bond yields rebounded on Thursday toward 4.33% demonstrates a well-functioning bond market, something we needed to witness.
Ипотечные спреды
Mortgage spreads exploded higher after the Silicon Valley banking crisis made things worse in 2023. However, mortgage spreads did start to improve in 2024. At the beginning of this year, this positive trend was heading in the right direction, but unfortunately, recent market volatility has widened the spread.
It’s understandable to feel concerned, especially considering that if spreads were as unfavorable as they were in 2023, we could be facing mortgage rates close to 8%. This situation would have made it incredibly difficult for anyone looking to buy a home, or sell and buy a house. If mortgage spreads were back to normal, we would be talking about mortgage rates near 6%.
Historically, mortgage spreads should range between 1.60%-1.80%.
Еженедельные данные инвентаризации жилья
The best housing story for me over 2024 and 2025 — the growth of inventory! Getting the country back to 2019 levels will make a more balanced housing market, and in fact, all my low housing inventory talk goes away. We made more progress again this week toward that goal.
- Weekly inventory change (April 11-April 18): Inventory rose from 702,434 к 719,400
- The same week last year (April 12-April 19): Inventory rose from 526,479 к 542,651
- В 2022 году рекордное дно запасов составило 240,497
- Пик запасов на 2024 год составил 739,434
- Для некоторого контекста активные объявления за ту же неделю в 2015 году были 1,060,699
Данные о новых объявлениях
The new listings data for the past two years hasn’t been a positive story, but it is now. Last year, I anticipated that a minimum of 80,000 homes would be listed every week during the peak seasonal months, and I was wrong — off by 5,000. This year, I am optimistic we would get back to that mark. Notably, around 70% to 80% of home sellers and buyers engage in the market, reflecting a constructive trend as we strive for a more balanced market.
Although this week presented a slight slowdown in growth of new listings, we are steadily approaching the seasonal peak and I remain confident that we will exceed 80,000 listings per week this year.
Чтобы дать вам перспективу, во время годы краха пузыря на рынке жилья, Новые листинги росли от 250 000 до 400 000 в неделю в течение многих лет. Рост данных о новых листингах только пытается вернуться к норме, где сезонные пики составляют от 80 000 до 110 000 в неделю. Национальные данные о новых листингах за последнюю неделю за предыдущие несколько лет:
- 2025: 77,004
- 2024: 68,409
- 2023: 59,269
Процент снижения цены
In a typical year, about one-third of homes experience a price reduction, reflecting the housing market’s ever-changing nature. As inventory levels rise along with higher mortgage rates, some homeowners are experiencing an increase in price adjustments.
На оставшуюся часть 2025 года я уверенно проект скромное увеличение цены на жилье приблизительно 1,77%. В то же время это предполагает еще один год отрицательного реального роста цен на жилье — текущая доступность домов и повышенные ставки по ипотеке подтверждают этот прогноз. Значительный сдвиг ставок по ипотеке до примерно 6% может изменить эту траекторию. Мой прогноз на 2024 год в 2,33% оказался неверным, поскольку более низкие ставки в 2024 году сделали мой прогноз слишком низким.
Рост ценовых сокращений в этом году по сравнению с прошлым годом сильно укрепляет мою уверенность в том, что мой консервативный прогноз роста цен на 2025 год является надежным и хорошо подкрепленным. Ниже приведены ценовые сокращения за предыдущие недели за последние несколько лет:
- 2025: 35.5%
- 2024: 32%
- 2023: 30%
The week ahead: Will headlines trump economic data?
This week, several Federal Reserve presidents will speak, which is likely to generate significant media attention. Additionally, with Trump expressing interest in replacing Powell, that narrative may gain traction. I’ll delve into this topic further in the Monday episode of the HousingWire Daily подкаст.
We’ll also see reports on new and existing home sales this week, and since our weekly data is slightly ahead of these figures, I expect a month-to-month decline in existing home sales. Furthermore, we’ll have service PMI reports alongside the Michigan consumer sentiment data on Friday, which has shown some challenges recently. It will be interesting to see how these indicators develop.
See the whole archive of our weekly Housing Market Tracker articles здесь.
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