In one of the most chaotic weeks for economic headlines of the year, ставки по ипотечным кредитам remained relatively stable, which is a stark contrast to the madness caused by the Godzilla tariffs a few weeks ago. Can this stability last?
Despite elevated rates, having fewer wild fluctuations on a day-to-day basis creates a healthier mortgage market for consumers and those working in the mortgage and real estate industry. Let’s take a look at the week.
Доходность по 10-летним облигациям и ставки по ипотечным кредитам
В моем Прогноз на 2025 год, Я ожидал следующие диапазоны:
- Ставки по ипотеке будут между 5,75% и 7,25%.
- Доходность 10-летних облигаций будет колебаться между 3,80% и 4,70%.
The wild week kicked off last Sunday night when ФХФА Chairman Bill Pulte boldly urged Powell to slash rates, declaring that “enough is enough.” Then Trump объявлено he wants to take the GSEs public with an implicit guarantee. Later on in the week, President Trump shared my article on the day he met with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, emphasizing the urgent need for a rate cut to the Fed Chairman.
But that’s not all — Trump faced a setback in court regarding his Godzilla tariffs, only to bounce back and issue a staggering 50% tariff on steel late Friday night. What a whirlwind of developments! To top it off, we had tame PCE inflation data released on Friday, the market yawned at that and the 10-year yield closed the week around 4.40%, while mortgage rates finished slightly lower.
There’s even more news to unpack, so tune into the Подкаст HousingWire Daily on Monday.
Ипотечные спреды
Mortgage spreads have been elevated since 2022 but have improved since their peak in 2023. We experienced some drama with the spreads as the markets dealt with the tariffs, but things have improved as the market has успокоился. It’s been essential to see spreads get better on days when the 10-year yield goes up because that limits the damage of a higher 10-year yield.
If the spreads were as bad as they were at the peak of 2023, mortgage rates would currently be 0.67% higher. Conversely, if the spreads returned to their normal range, mortgage rates would be 0.83% to 0.63% % lower than today’s level. Historically, mortgage spreads have typically ranged between 1.60% and 1.80%.
Данные заявки на покупку
На прошлой неделе данные о заявках на покупку повысился by 18% year-over-year, up 3% from the previous week. The most unloved economic data of 2025 is likely due to confusion; I recently discussed this data line in этот подкаст. We have a 17-week winning streak on positive year-over-year growth and four straight weeks of double-digit growth during the peak seasonal month of May. Traditionally, after May, volumes tend to fall.
Вот еженедельные данные за 2025 год:
- 10 positive readings
- 7 отрицательных показаний
- 3 плоских отпечатка
- 17 straight weeks of positive year-over-year data
Всего ожидаемых продаж
Последние еженедельные данные по общему объему ожидаемых продаж от Альты provides valuable insights into current trends in housing demand. Typically, mortgage rates near 6% are required to foster real growth in the housing market. While total pending home sales are slightly higher than last year, it is surprising to see this data remain steady despite elevated rates in 2025. We are clearly at the seasonal peak period for this data line in terms of volumes and will soon see the seasonal decline.
Ожидаемые еженедельные продажи за последнюю неделю за последние несколько лет:
- 2025: 413,771
- 2024: 406,136
Еженедельные ожидаемые продажи
As I noted на прошлой неделе, I have added weekly pending sales data to this tracker. While this data provides the most up-to-date week-to-week information, it can be affected by the calendar year’s volatility and any events that may occur. Due to the Memorial Day weekend, this data line was affected, so that we will have a better idea of its performance in two weeks.
Weekly pending sales for last week over the past several years:
- 2025: 72,312
- 2024: 62,919
Еженедельные данные инвентаризации жилья
The most exciting development in the housing market for 2024 and 2025 is the increase in инвентарь. Inventory needs to return to pre-pandemic levels for the housing market to operate more effectively. The seasonal increase in inventory is much needed as the country is working its way back to normal. Again, once we get to 2019 levels, all the low inventory talk goes away. For our data lines, we have reached the bottom end of the 2019 inventory.
- Weekly inventory change (May 23-May 30): Inventory rose from 787,049 к 803,519
- The same week last year (May 24-May 31): Inventory rose from 594,584 к 604,922
Данные о новых объявлениях
As inventory has grown, we’ve finally gotten out of the two-year drought of new listing data, and we’re back above 80,000 per week during the seasonal peak months. I had forecasted this for last year, but it didn’t happen. I kept that forecast for 2025, and we are here today with the second print over 80,000. This data line, as it always does, gets impacted by holiday weekends; we should see an increase next week.
Чтобы дать вам некоторую перспективу, во время годы краха пузыря на рынке жилья, Количество новых объявлений росло со скоростью от 250 000 до 400 000 в неделю на протяжении многих лет.
- 2025: 70,421
- 2024: 63,463
Процент снижения цены
В типичном году около трети домов испытывают снижение цен, что подчеркивает динамичную природу рынка жилья. Многие домовладельцы корректируют свои цены продажи, поскольку уровни запасов растут, а ставки по ипотеке остаются высокими.
For my 2025 price forecast, I anticipate a modest increase in home prices of approximately 1.77%. This suggests that 2025 will again see a negative real home price forecast. In 2024, my forecast of a 2.33% increase proved inaccurate, primarily because mortgage rates fell toward 6% and demand improved in the second half of 2024. As a result, home prices ended up increasing by 4% in 2024.
The rise in price reductions this year compared to last year reinforces my cautious growth forecast for 2025.
- 2025: 38%
- 2024: 35%
The week ahead: Jobs week!
As we approach jobs week, it’s an important time for economic indicators. Last week, we received a rather subdued PCE inflation report with headline PCE recorded at 2.1%, which didn’t seem to prompt much reaction from the bond market. However, the labor data remains a crucial focus for both the Federal Reserve and bond market participants.
Fed President Waller will speak on Monday, and we have some PMI data to consider. Although the mortgage market remained calm last week, the upcoming week may bring some volatility.
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