Mortgage rates fell 0.18% last week, breaking below the key threshold of 6.64%. Why is this important? Because in the last three years, when mortgage rates fell from 6.64% to 6%, housing demand has improved. Now the question is: can rates go lower?
Доходность по 10-летним облигациям и ставки по ипотечным кредитам
В моем Прогноз на 2025 год, Я ожидал следующие диапазоны:
- Ставки по ипотеке от 5.75% до 7.25%
- Доходность 10-летних облигаций колеблется между 3,80% и 4,70%.
The 10-year yield has fluctuated between approximately 4.79% and 3.87% this year, considering overnight trading within that range. Meanwhile, ставки по ипотечным кредитам have varied from 7.25% to 6.50%. So, what comes next? If the labor data gets weaker, then the 10-year yield can head toward 3.80% with mortgage rates heading near 6% for sure, but we need more weakness in economic data or a more dovish Fed.
In a special weekend episode of the HousingWire Daily podcast, I discuss my perspective on the labor data, which has been declining for 19 months but hasn’t yet reached a breaking point. The key difference between this year and the previous years is that one of my two labor indicators is signaling a full-blown recession. Typically, we see residential construction workers losing jobs before a recession hits. Since 2010, there have been instances where this data fell for three to four consecutive months without resulting in a recession, but the current situation is different.
We’re seeing completed housing units at historically high levels, which suggests that the decline in labor can pick up if demand gets worse. We need to monitor this situation closely moving forward.
The 10-year yield action was all on Friday. We had a waterfall drop from a high of 4.40% down to 4.21%. Mortgage rates fell 12 basis points on Friday to 6.63% and for the week, 18 basis points.
Ипотечные спреды
The improvement in mortgage spreads in 2025 has been a blessing for housing, as demand could have been worse if mortgage spreads hadn’t improved since the worst levels of 2023. With more rate cuts and a dovish tone from the Fed, the spreads can slowly improve over time. I was looking for a 0.27%-0.41% improvement in 2025, working from a 2.54% average in 2024. So far, we haven’t hit that level, but we’ve gotten close.
If the spreads were as bad as they were at the peak of 2023, mortgage rates would currently be 0.77 % higher. Conversely, if the spreads returned to their normal range, mortgage rates would be 0.53%-0.73% lower than today’s level. Historically, mortgage spreads have ranged between 1.60% and 1.80%.
The best levels of normal spreads would mean mortgage rates at 5.90% % to 6.10% today, a notable difference.
Данные заявки на покупку
Last week, the данные приложения покупки showed a 6% week-to-week decline and a 17% year-over-year gain. The year-over-year growth in new listings can help explain the growth we have had in the year-over-year data for purchase apps. Now that mortgage rates are below 6.64%, if they continue to fall, we should see better week-to-week data, as we have seen in the past.
Вот еженедельные данные за 2025 год:
- 13 положительных показаний
- 11 negative readings
- 5 плоских отпечатков
- 26 straight weeks of positive year-over-year data
- 13 consecutive weeks of double-digit growth year over year
Всего ожидаемых продаж
Последние данные о общем объеме ожидаемых продаж от Альты provides valuable insights into current trends in housing demand. Last year, we observed a significant shift when mortgage rates decreased from 6.64% to around 6% Now that mortgage rates are at 6.63%, it will be interesting to see what happens with the data if we can get rates heading toward 6% with duration.
Всего ожидаемых продаж:
- 2025: 386561
- 2024: 379,478
Еженедельные ожидаемые продажи
Our weekly pending home sales provide a week-to-week glimpse into the data; however, this data line can also be impacted by holidays and any short-term shocks. We did see a week-to-week decline in this data line, while still showing year-over-year growth
Ожидаемые продажи за прошлую неделю:
- 2025: 68,413
- 2024: 66,197
Еженедельные данные инвентаризации жилья
One of the recent themes we have had with the Housing Market Tracker articles is that the growth rate of inventory is slowing, and this started toward the end of June. Once I got the 2-week July 4th holiday out of the data, this trend has continued this week, but I will be curious to see how the tracker looks if mortgage rates head toward 6%, especially with duration.
Still, the best story for housing in 2024 and 2025 has been the inventory growth and cooling down in home-price growth.
На прошлой неделе темпы роста запасов замедлились по сравнению с предыдущей неделей.
- Weekly inventory change (July 25-Aug. 1): Inventory rose from 860,426 к 865,620
- The same week last year (July 26-Aug. 2): Inventory rose from 677,246 к 683,738
Данные о новых объявлениях
New listings data appears to have peaked the week of May 23, with a total of 83,143 listings. While I was pleased to hit my minimum weekly target of 80,000 new listings, I was disappointed that we didn’t see a few weeks with numbers between 80,000 and 100,000. We are well on the way to the seasonal decline in these listings. One thing we don’t want to see is this data line go below the 2023 or 2024 data.
Чтобы дать вам некоторую перспективу, во время годы краха пузыря на рынке жилья, Количество новых объявлений росло от 250 000 до 400 000 в неделю в течение многих лет. Вот данные о новых объявлениях за последнюю неделю за последние два года:
- 2025: 69,837
- 2024: 67,083
Процент снижения цены
Обычно за год цены на жилье снижаются примерно на треть, что свидетельствует о динамичности рынка жилья. Владельцы жилья корректируют цены продаж по мере роста запасов и сохранения высоких ипотечных ставок. В связи с увеличением запасов и ростом ставок, наши данные по проценту снижения цен выше, чем в прошлом году.
Для моего Прогноз цен на 2025 год, я ожидал скромного роста цен на жилье примерно на 1,77%. Это говорит о том, что в 2025 году, вероятно, снова будут отрицательные реальные цены на жилье. В 2024 году мой прогноз роста на 2,33% оказался неточным, в первую очередь потому, что ставки упали примерно до 6%, а спрос улучшился во второй половине года. В результате цены на жилье выросли на 4% в 2024 году.
Рост снижения цен в этом году по сравнению с прошлым годом подтверждает мой осторожный прогноз роста на 2025 год. Вот процент домов, цены на которые снизились на предыдущей неделе за последние два года:
- 2025: 41.7%
- 2024: 39%
The week ahead: ISM & PMI, bond auctions and jobless claims
After the hectic week filled with job data releases and the Федеральный резерв meeting, the upcoming week is likely to feel much calmer, giving us a chance to catch our breath. We will have some ISM and PMI data that could influence the markets, along with a few bond auctions and the weekly jobless claims report to watch.
The jobless claims data is a crucial indicator for the Federal Reserve. They aim to maintain their moderately restrictive policy for as long as they can, but if this data begins to break higher, their stance could be at risk. Last week was tumultuous, and as we look ahead to this week, we should take a moment to reflect. Some members of the Fed may need to rethink their established views.
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